Continue to update Cheltenham races and decided to advise long term members to back Denman ew @ 8/1 and Binocular win @ 6/1 as some of these proces are going. Of course horses will improve and come into contention during the season but I have both races between 4 or 5 horses and I am sure both the advised horses will be trading shorter before Christmas.
Binocular will have a years growth and maturity, and did really well having missed a vital piece of work before last years race. I am worried about Hurricane Fly but he has yet to run at Cheltenham and needs to prove himself. He is trading too short for me but he is definately one to watch. I am not interested in Solwhit but will keep an eye on him. I will be looking to back to small stakes both Punjabi and Celestial Halo on betfair at 16/1 or bigger.
A horse that will be 10 at the next festival and with a well reported heart problem cannot make good ante post material, but when you look at the ratings Kauto Star and Denamn are so far ahead it is dificult not to see them in the finish if the make it to the Gold Cup in 2010. Sure irish horses like Cooldine, Aran Concerto and Trafford Lad could make the grade as could others but I can look to back these during the season as such horses need to win a good 3 mile + race at Graded Class level to stand a chance. I took Kauto Star on last year and lost but want to take him on again and I am more confident that he can be beaten this time. He is far too exposed and despite his class and the fact that he will be targetted at only the King george and the Gold Cup do not think he represents good value. He is a champion though so I am not saying that on the day I wont be tempted to save on him, but at the moment the 8/1 about Denamn is huge. He will only have to come out and win a race for those odds to halve and whereas last season I am sure they were worried about his condition I believe this season they will train as though he does not have a problem. He does take a lot of getting fit so there is a chance his first run may not be that impressive but that might give me another chance to go in again, (once connections confirmed he has come out of the race ok).
So there you are take the 6/1 about Binocular and the 8/1 about Denman and look to trade out before Christmas for a free bet.
Sunday, 26 July 2009
Friday, 17 July 2009
So far ahead!
Well I really feel on top of preparations for the NH season. Still in July and already updated my stats and drafted the first e-mail not due until October! I have developed my first list of horses to follow based on the 2008/09 season and can't wait until the stable tours and One Jump Ahead, Marten Julian and John Morris produce their lists to look out for the new stars.
Have had to stop betting on the flat as I have hit my self imposed stop loss for the month of July (£200). I remember the days when £200 was my average stake! That was when I was working full time and subscribing to ISIRIS. I understand ISIRIS is coming back but I won't be joining as I simply cannot afford it. I know the argument that says you cannot afford not to but I am convinced there are more cost effective ways of making a profit and he is just to successful.
My problem has always been coping emotionally with the inevitable losing run. I would try to get my money back or do something silly, but slowly have been able to nearly master that and the stop loss is part of that strategy. Theoretically it is not justifiable (i.e. a successful system should be followed with a bank sufficient to cope and as the winners will come when you least expect them), but for me it is working.
Anyway looking forward to the Open, the Ashes the Tour de France.... does it get any better than this!
Have had to stop betting on the flat as I have hit my self imposed stop loss for the month of July (£200). I remember the days when £200 was my average stake! That was when I was working full time and subscribing to ISIRIS. I understand ISIRIS is coming back but I won't be joining as I simply cannot afford it. I know the argument that says you cannot afford not to but I am convinced there are more cost effective ways of making a profit and he is just to successful.
My problem has always been coping emotionally with the inevitable losing run. I would try to get my money back or do something silly, but slowly have been able to nearly master that and the stop loss is part of that strategy. Theoretically it is not justifiable (i.e. a successful system should be followed with a bank sufficient to cope and as the winners will come when you least expect them), but for me it is working.
Anyway looking forward to the Open, the Ashes the Tour de France.... does it get any better than this!
Friday, 3 July 2009
Caution Caution Caution
Started updating my notes for individual horses and amazed at the number of horses at the beginning of last season that were held in high regard by connections and "big things expected" that subsequently dissappointed and the lack of the names of horses that did well. So I need to be cautious (that word seems to crop up alot when you are considering ante post betting!). Looking at 2 letters a day so should be finished by the end of july.
Keep looking through the four key championship races and feel there is value in the Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup markets but that re the QMCC at the moment looking to play for a place and the prices don't really inspire and the World Hurdle there is too much doubt over who will be seriously going for the race.
Although I am not looking to bet on anything outside the four championship races before the turn of the year the Arkle already looks like it could be really hot. If a number of the Supreme horses do go chasing along with others from the Champion Hurdle not to mention horses from France not yet heard of looks like it could develop into a cracker of a race. I have personally had a small interest in Crack Away Jack but the more I look at possibles for the race the more I think perhaps the 12/1 is not that big. I know connections had schooled CAJ and were very pleased and it was only the fact it had done so well over hurdles they decided to wait a year so for a horse that could finish a closing fourth in the Champion Hurdle I don't regret having the bet.
Keep looking through the four key championship races and feel there is value in the Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup markets but that re the QMCC at the moment looking to play for a place and the prices don't really inspire and the World Hurdle there is too much doubt over who will be seriously going for the race.
Although I am not looking to bet on anything outside the four championship races before the turn of the year the Arkle already looks like it could be really hot. If a number of the Supreme horses do go chasing along with others from the Champion Hurdle not to mention horses from France not yet heard of looks like it could develop into a cracker of a race. I have personally had a small interest in Crack Away Jack but the more I look at possibles for the race the more I think perhaps the 12/1 is not that big. I know connections had schooled CAJ and were very pleased and it was only the fact it had done so well over hurdles they decided to wait a year so for a horse that could finish a closing fourth in the Champion Hurdle I don't regret having the bet.
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