It was great to watch some quality jumps racing in August (!), from Ffos Las, wtih Backstage showing once again what an astute trainer Gordon Elliott is. It was a quality field spoilt only by the fact there were only half a dozen in the handicap proper. The course has received good feedback and I wish them all the success for the future.
Well I have sent off my cheque for One Jump Ahead and Jumping Prospects and updated my horse notes from the Racing Post Open Day reports, (although there wasn't much new information).
The Arkle and the RSA are looking very competitive events and although I have had a bet on Crack Away Jack, (he was only just below Champion Hurdle class but connections always saw him as a chaser), for the former it really is way too early to have any interest in either event. We need to see how horses jump at speed for the former and jump and stay for the latter and the attrition rate particulalry for the RSA Chase can be very high. I remember the early betting on the RSA last year and of the first 20 in the betting only 4 lined up, although the eventual winner Cooldine was joint 16/1 favourite. Without doing too much work I already have a list of eight runners I am interested in for the RSA Chase and as for the Arkle we may not have seen the winner on an English or Irish track yet! Add to that the betting markets are very immature and weak so there is no real edge to be had.
I had a minor scare with my web-site (www.Cheltenhamchampions.com) when returning from a short break found it had ceased to exist! Fortunatley it was due to "a short outage on one of the servers" of my hosting company (whatever that means). Anyway all is back to normal now.
I am not a football fan but do enjoy trading to very small stakes and have made a small profit on a couple of games already this season. As is often the case it pays to bet against the perceived general wisdom. For instance if the general view is there will be a goal fest check out what the spread firms have set the total goals market and trade on betfair the "under x goals" market where x is the mid point of the spread price.
Monday, 31 August 2009
Thursday, 20 August 2009
Champion Hurdle
I see Solwhit has been backed in to 9/1 (from 10/1) and he has excellent form having beaten Punjabi in Ireland and before that posted a (very) big figure at Aintree (albeit over 20f on Soft). But given the Punjabi race was also on Soft/Heavy and Punjabi had hard races at both Cheltenham and Aintree just prior to that race, and the fact he has yet to race at Cheltenham, I don't think that is an attractive price. I know Solwhit is being targetted at the race but at this stage I can only see him as a saver if he lines up for the big one in March.
On form we have four good horses in Binocular, Celestial Halo, Punjabi and Solwhit, with both Hurricane Fly and Zaynar looking like they may be capable of posting figures to compete at the highest level, particualrly the former.
I think there is no doubt Hurricane Fly was the best Novice 2 miler of last year but 7/2 about a horse who has never raced at Cheltenham and has to prove himself against his elders some 7 months ahead is not for me.
I cannot have Zaynar even though he is as short as 8/1 with Victor Chandler, (who has an interest in him), primarily because he will only be 5 and despite Katchit's win they are up against it when facing older more mature and experinced rivals at the festival.
I will be watching Hurricane Fly and Zaynar closely as they could easily develop into bets at some stage but they are both too short for what they proved so far.
So having suggested Hurricane Fly and Zaynar are too short and Solwhit has something to prove over 2 miles at Cheltenham on Good to Soft going, we are left with the first three home last year.
We have seen off the old brigade and a new generation is now centre stage and I am convinced we will see the first three back again next year with a big chance. All three have to be respected and with both Binocular and Celestial Halo being only 5 last year and open to improvement and each with reason to believe they can do better they have to be really good value at 6/1 and 14/1.
Punjabi has had 30 races with 14 over hurdles compared to Binoculars 14 lifetime and 7 hurdle races and Celestial Halo's 16 races and 8 hurdle races. He had a good preparation last year and the run of the race and whilst he is a very tough horse, I would want 18/1+ before I stepped in.
Celestial Halo deserves to be slightly longer than Binocular as there is a doubt as to whether he will be stepped up in trip (particularly if Big Bucks goes for the Gold Cup)and a doubt over the jockey, (will Ruby Walsh ride Hurricane Fly if they both line up?).
So to summarise the prices I would be looking to beat at the start of the season are: -
Binocular 5/1; Hurricane Fly 6/1; Celestial Halo 10/1; Punjabi 16/1; Solwhit 16/1; Zaynar 20/1; Others 33/1+
There is the possibility that something improves past all these, or something comes from the flat, but I am happy, at this stage, to bet that doesn't happen.
On form we have four good horses in Binocular, Celestial Halo, Punjabi and Solwhit, with both Hurricane Fly and Zaynar looking like they may be capable of posting figures to compete at the highest level, particualrly the former.
I think there is no doubt Hurricane Fly was the best Novice 2 miler of last year but 7/2 about a horse who has never raced at Cheltenham and has to prove himself against his elders some 7 months ahead is not for me.
I cannot have Zaynar even though he is as short as 8/1 with Victor Chandler, (who has an interest in him), primarily because he will only be 5 and despite Katchit's win they are up against it when facing older more mature and experinced rivals at the festival.
I will be watching Hurricane Fly and Zaynar closely as they could easily develop into bets at some stage but they are both too short for what they proved so far.
So having suggested Hurricane Fly and Zaynar are too short and Solwhit has something to prove over 2 miles at Cheltenham on Good to Soft going, we are left with the first three home last year.
We have seen off the old brigade and a new generation is now centre stage and I am convinced we will see the first three back again next year with a big chance. All three have to be respected and with both Binocular and Celestial Halo being only 5 last year and open to improvement and each with reason to believe they can do better they have to be really good value at 6/1 and 14/1.
Punjabi has had 30 races with 14 over hurdles compared to Binoculars 14 lifetime and 7 hurdle races and Celestial Halo's 16 races and 8 hurdle races. He had a good preparation last year and the run of the race and whilst he is a very tough horse, I would want 18/1+ before I stepped in.
Celestial Halo deserves to be slightly longer than Binocular as there is a doubt as to whether he will be stepped up in trip (particularly if Big Bucks goes for the Gold Cup)and a doubt over the jockey, (will Ruby Walsh ride Hurricane Fly if they both line up?).
So to summarise the prices I would be looking to beat at the start of the season are: -
Binocular 5/1; Hurricane Fly 6/1; Celestial Halo 10/1; Punjabi 16/1; Solwhit 16/1; Zaynar 20/1; Others 33/1+
There is the possibility that something improves past all these, or something comes from the flat, but I am happy, at this stage, to bet that doesn't happen.
Thursday, 13 August 2009
Cheltenham Champion Hurdle
I have been re watching the 2009 Champion Hurdle.
Punjabi is clealry a quality horse but he got the run of the race and was a year older than both Binocular and Celestial Halo. I have said previously given the interrupted preparation he had and with another year under his belt, Binocular is my fancy to win in 2010. However the more I watched the race, coupled with the fact that Paul Nicholls is aiming him at the race and the fact he had a very dificult start to his training last year and the fact that he had to fight all the way in a contested fight for the lead with Osana and Hardy Eustace, it is dificult not to be impressed with his performance. I do have a concern as to who will ride him as if Hurricane Fly lines up who would Ruby Walsh choose to ride? I suspect (quite rightly), we will not get an answer until it happens but it has to be a worry.
Whilst I still think Binocular will win (as long as the going is not too soft), I think the 14/1 about Celestial Halo is too big a price.
Hurricane Fly, Solwhit and Zaynar are all horses who could make the grade but even if they do I could only see them as saver material. Unlike Celestial Halo and Binocular they have not been there and done it in the Champion Hurdle. Also Both Hurricane Fly and Solwhit have yet to prove they will take to the Cheltenham course.
However it is interesting that Zaynar is only 8/1 with Victor Chandler (who has an interest in him) and he is proven at Cheltenham. Nevertheless I would want to see him come out and be competitive against his elders before considering a saver bet. There is no way he should be 2 points shorter than Celestial Halo at the beginning of the season.
I accept there is the risk that Celestial Halo may be stepped up to the World Hurdle (particularly if Big Bucks is re-routed to the Gold Cup-something that might happen if anything happened to Kauto Star or Deman), but it was clear to me after the Champion hurdle last year Paul Nicholls really thinks he has a chance of winning it with Celestial halo and if he aims a horse at a race you have to take notice. Plus through his column in the Racing Post he is likely to talk positively of his chances and cause his proce to contract.
It is difficult to see anything at this stage being worthy of consideration for the Champion Hurdle other than the six mentioned and at the prices Binocular at 6/1 and Celestial Halo at 14/1 stand out.
Punjabi is clealry a quality horse but he got the run of the race and was a year older than both Binocular and Celestial Halo. I have said previously given the interrupted preparation he had and with another year under his belt, Binocular is my fancy to win in 2010. However the more I watched the race, coupled with the fact that Paul Nicholls is aiming him at the race and the fact he had a very dificult start to his training last year and the fact that he had to fight all the way in a contested fight for the lead with Osana and Hardy Eustace, it is dificult not to be impressed with his performance. I do have a concern as to who will ride him as if Hurricane Fly lines up who would Ruby Walsh choose to ride? I suspect (quite rightly), we will not get an answer until it happens but it has to be a worry.
Whilst I still think Binocular will win (as long as the going is not too soft), I think the 14/1 about Celestial Halo is too big a price.
Hurricane Fly, Solwhit and Zaynar are all horses who could make the grade but even if they do I could only see them as saver material. Unlike Celestial Halo and Binocular they have not been there and done it in the Champion Hurdle. Also Both Hurricane Fly and Solwhit have yet to prove they will take to the Cheltenham course.
However it is interesting that Zaynar is only 8/1 with Victor Chandler (who has an interest in him) and he is proven at Cheltenham. Nevertheless I would want to see him come out and be competitive against his elders before considering a saver bet. There is no way he should be 2 points shorter than Celestial Halo at the beginning of the season.
I accept there is the risk that Celestial Halo may be stepped up to the World Hurdle (particularly if Big Bucks is re-routed to the Gold Cup-something that might happen if anything happened to Kauto Star or Deman), but it was clear to me after the Champion hurdle last year Paul Nicholls really thinks he has a chance of winning it with Celestial halo and if he aims a horse at a race you have to take notice. Plus through his column in the Racing Post he is likely to talk positively of his chances and cause his proce to contract.
It is difficult to see anything at this stage being worthy of consideration for the Champion Hurdle other than the six mentioned and at the prices Binocular at 6/1 and Celestial Halo at 14/1 stand out.
Friday, 7 August 2009
National Hunt Ante Post Trading Opportunities
Well the 8/1 has now gone about Denman for the Gold Cup, as I thought it would. I still think 7/1 is too big but having had my bet will now wait.
I was interested in reading that Paul Nicholls intends giving Master Minded a busy season icluding the Queen Mother Champion Chase (QMCC). He has stated before, that he is a dificult horse to train and I am sure there is money in laying him for the QMCC now. It would only need one poor run or an injury scare for his odds to lengthen and his performances of late are not upto those of his first Queen Mum win, so there is the real possibility of him being run very close. That is without considering the possibilty (god forbid) of injury. The downside is you tie your money up which few of us can afford to do, but as a low risk trading opportunity this is one of the better ones.
Slightly more risky trading opportunity is to take the 25/1+ on Betfair about Notre Pere for the Gold Cup. He is due to clash with Kauto Star in Ireland in November and I would expect him to trade shorter leading upto that race and even if you cannot trade out for a profit before the race I am confident on nhis required soft going he will give a good enough show to see his odds cut even if he doesn't beat Kauto Star. This is however definately a trading bet only as I cannot see him getting his soft ground at the festival and so he probably will not even run!
I was interested in reading that Paul Nicholls intends giving Master Minded a busy season icluding the Queen Mother Champion Chase (QMCC). He has stated before, that he is a dificult horse to train and I am sure there is money in laying him for the QMCC now. It would only need one poor run or an injury scare for his odds to lengthen and his performances of late are not upto those of his first Queen Mum win, so there is the real possibility of him being run very close. That is without considering the possibilty (god forbid) of injury. The downside is you tie your money up which few of us can afford to do, but as a low risk trading opportunity this is one of the better ones.
Slightly more risky trading opportunity is to take the 25/1+ on Betfair about Notre Pere for the Gold Cup. He is due to clash with Kauto Star in Ireland in November and I would expect him to trade shorter leading upto that race and even if you cannot trade out for a profit before the race I am confident on nhis required soft going he will give a good enough show to see his odds cut even if he doesn't beat Kauto Star. This is however definately a trading bet only as I cannot see him getting his soft ground at the festival and so he probably will not even run!
Sunday, 2 August 2009
Denman still excellent value
The prices on Denman (8/1 in 2 places) and Binocular (6/1 in several places) are still available and I cannot believe the former will last much longer. Paul Nicholls recently confirmed he was in rude health and will be targetted at the Gold Cup and not the Grand National. I never thought he would be aimed at the latter but I guess that goes back to last season when there was discussion in the press fuelled by comments from Harry Findlay. I really do think 8/1 is a very big price and I may well go in again.
I am having a very slow time on the flat at the moment. I don't follow it in the way I do National Hunt and follow a couple of tipsters, to small stakes, who are having a slow time themselves. I guess the going conditions don't help but we will come through.
My list of horses to follow is developing nicely and I cannot wait for One Jump Ahead to identify further possible. His sections from Anthony Bromley often identify new stars for the season and we get an early indication of targets. One of the best value publications of the season!
I am updating all my ratings ovber the next fortnight and feel I have never been better prepared for the season than this year. lets hope that translates into bigger profits!
Good Luck with your punting and talk soon.
Adrian
I am having a very slow time on the flat at the moment. I don't follow it in the way I do National Hunt and follow a couple of tipsters, to small stakes, who are having a slow time themselves. I guess the going conditions don't help but we will come through.
My list of horses to follow is developing nicely and I cannot wait for One Jump Ahead to identify further possible. His sections from Anthony Bromley often identify new stars for the season and we get an early indication of targets. One of the best value publications of the season!
I am updating all my ratings ovber the next fortnight and feel I have never been better prepared for the season than this year. lets hope that translates into bigger profits!
Good Luck with your punting and talk soon.
Adrian
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