QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE 2015 Initial Thoughts

With all the Arkle runners having run again and none have won, surely this race is a match bet between SPRINTER SACRE and SIRE DE GRUGY? If you take out Arvika Ligeonniers, who is better going right handed SIRE DE GRUGY is 8lbs clear of the next best horse on official ratings and he could be even better than that. But his final rating is some 16lbs behind that SPRINTER SACRE was given the previous year. These two, if at their best are the ones to beat and until SPRINTER SACRE has put together back to back performances you would not want to back him without the security of NRNB, and as such SIRE DE GRUGY looks a fair bet at 4/1? THe novices from last season all seamed to beat each other and none has really shown themselves to be a champion in waiting. BALDER SUCCES is the highest rated novice and is one of a number Alan King has in training including Valdez and UXIZANDRE. Others to keep an eye on include WESTERN WARHORSE, TAQUIN DU SEUIL, CHAMPAGNE FEVER, GODS OWN, MOSCOW MANNON, TRIFOLIUM, SIMPLY NED and last but not least EDUARD. The latter is horse trained by Nicky Richards and is a horse I have high hopes for. EDUARD, UXIZANDRE and TAQUIN DU SEUIL have all proven themselves beyond 2 miles but given you need stamina as well as speed to win the Quuen Mother Champion Chase this is no bad thing and if targetted at this race have to be given a chance.

GOLD CUP 2015 Initial Thoughts

Well, where do you start. After an era dominated by Nicholls with Kauto Star and Denman, we end the season with Nicholls having the top rated staying chaser in SILVINIACO CONTI, but a horse who wasn't able to finish in the first three in the Gold Cup! The first 6 home were separated by less than 7 lengths and where the winner could not be picked out after the second last or last or even at the finishing line. At one level I could not rule out any of those finishing in the fitst six but surely it opens the race wide open? THe first six home were LORD WINDERMERE, ON HIS OWN, THE GIANT BOLSTER, SILVINIACO CONTI, BOBS WORTH and LYREEN LEGEND. ON HIS OWN will be 11 and has already run 14 chases and THE GIANT BOLSTER whilst a year younger has run 20 chases and both are exposed. I cannot have Last Instalment, a fragile horse who unseated rider when beginning to tire in the Gold Cup and in anycase I would be surprised if connections risked him on good ground at Cheltenham. CUE CARD was a notable absentee from the race and had been my Ante Post fancy. We still get a decent price about a proven Grade 1 performer because of the doubt over his stamina, especially after his beating by SILVINIACO CONTI in the King George when seemingly having the race sewn up. On reflection I will be dissappointed if either win the Gold Cup next season. DYNASTE was the best horse going into the Ryanair and duly performed as such but then was beaten, again by that horse SILVINIACO CONTI, so again a definate possible but a dissappointing winner? THe RSA looked an average renewal beforehand and didn't produce anyhting to suggest a superstar. Nevertheless, in a season without any real star and those open to improvement likely to come to the fore, the first six home could not be ruled out. O'FAOLAINS BOY, SMAD PLACE, MORNING ASSEMBLY, BALLYCASEY, SAM WINNER and CARLINGFORD LOUGH all, have the potential to develop without screaming out future Gold Cup winner. However the top rated Novice on official ratings is HOLYWELL, who does demand respect. Winning his last 4 chases and a winner both times he has visited the festival, he ended the season winning the Grade 1 Novice Chase at Aintree including the RSA victor O'FAOLAINS BOY, and it it would be surprising if connections did not target the Gold Cup in 2015. Having said that I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't really wound up until the big day and we may get a better price during the season than the 12/1 currently available. One other horse I want to mention was my early Ante post selection for the race and that is SIR DES CHAMPS. Unfortunately he never made it to the race but he is one to keep an eye once we know he is back to his best. He was beaten by BOBS WORTH and First Lieutenant, (A horse who seems to find one or two too good in the big races), at Leopardstown, with no obvious excuses, so again inconclusive. This looks at this stage one of the widest open Gold Cus for many a season and therefore is race I definately do not want to bet without NRNB or at least without knowing the horse is clearly being targetted at the race. The proven stayers I am interested in are SILVINIACO CONTI, LORD WINDERMEMRE, BOBS WORTH, SIR DES CHAMPS, CUE CARD and DYNASTE but would be disappointed if the winner came form this group. If they show they are in form and being targetted at the race they may become of interest. Of the novices I will be watching all of HOLYWELL, O'FAOLAIANS BOY, SMAD PLACE, MORNING ASSEMBLY, BALLYCASEY, SAM WINNER, and CARLINGFORD LOUGH. So I AM LOOKING FOR AT LEAST 25/1 NRNB or 16/1 definately targetted at the race and proven fit and well.

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2015 PLANS

As an Aide Memoire and also as a way to be more disciplined I am outlining my plans for developing my Ante post portfolio for next years Festival. FIRST To review 2014 Festival and post Initial Views of the key races for 2015 with initial prices looking for (NRNB). SECOND To take each race and subject all those trading on Betfair at less then 60.0 to statisitical analysis to see if any leading horses can be taken on or any of those lying outside the first three can be given a boost. THIRD Update Form ratings for the leading contenders. FOURTH Need to remember how close the jockey title race is normally and was particulalry last year. Tony McCoy could have ridden at least two more winners had he chosen right and it is useful to remember that Barry Geraghty got Tony's rejects for JP andapart from Nicky's runners will be high on any replacement list. Depending on Ruby's hurdle mounts, (he does not have such a good record in chases), it may be that I will be looking to back those in the specific race markets and then looking to back Barry Geraghty and Tony McCoy in the Top Jockey market?

WORLD HURDLE 2015 Initial Thoughts

With BIG BUCKS having given his best it is good-bye to a true champion, although he often went off at bigger odds than he really should of and in hindsight should have been the subject of much bigger wagers then he was from this quarter. Going into the race I was caught up in the BIG BUCKS v ANNIE POWER debate and was firmly in the ANNIE POWER camp. As should always be regarded as a very loud warning signal I was feeling quite smug having got 3/1 NRNB about the mare. I was pretty sure she would beat Big Bucks and did not think At Fishers Cross was quite good enough. I did not consider MORE OF THAT a real challenger as the stable had been talking down his participation for reasons of his inexperience and with only 4 races behind him I fully agreed, (the previous 14 champions had at least 6 hurdle races behind them). On top of that Tony McCoy had nailed his colours to JP's more proven stayer AT FISHERS CROSS. Not for the first time that week Barry Geraghty rode Tony's reject and JP's second string to victory, but this time I had no money on him! MORE OF THAT can only improve and it is difficlt to see what can trouble him if he gets there fit and well next year. Solwhit won a below average renewal in 2013, and Willie Mullins accepted that Annie Power was beaten by a better horse. Once again I am sure Willie Mullins will have a number of possible younger horses coming through that he may target at this race but as I have no idea who they might be, (Briar Hill?), I will watch the market with interest. WHISPER won the Coral cup at the festival and went on to beat AT FISHERS CROSS and Zarkandar at Aintree, putting him within 5lbs of MORE OF THAT and although more exposed than More of That has to be on any shortlist being a proven festival performer. The World Hurdle has some pretty clear trial races and I will be watching these for any new challengers or any of those named showing improved form. These races include LONG DISTANCE HURDLE, Newbury November, THE LONG WALK HURDLE Ascot December, and CLEEVE HURDLE Cheltenham January MORE OF THAT WHISPER AT FISHERS CROSS WILLIE MULLINS SELECTED

CHAMPION HURDLE 2015 Initial Thoughts

As a starter for ten I thought I would have an early look at the major Cheltenham Festival races for 2015 starting with the Champion Hurdle. The intention is to cover the major Grade 1 races at the festival over the next 6 months and then keep them updated as more information becomes available. I will say now I am a big fan of Paul Jones and will be leaning on him for in season updates to my portfolio. He made a loss on his outright tips last year but you need to read the whole of his very comprehensive weekly updates to get the full value of his service, (plug over and no I do not receive any backhanders for saying so), coupled with my own statistical analysis and form ratings. I have decided on a change to my Ante Post betting for 2015 and will now only be betting NRNB. This is not because I have not been profitable, although that has been due to luck as much as skill over the last two festivals!, more that last year the major bookmakers and more so Betfair seemed very tight and I do not have enough capital to tie up for such a long time and keep enough of a bank for my regular betting. I expect there will be the odd exception but that is rule I am looking to maintain. Right onto the Champion Hurdle. The best place to start is always the previous renewal. It was a very sad day when we lost Our Connor. This horse was destined to be a future champion but never got the chance to show it. In addition the owner had declared any winnings would be donated to charity, so it was a a double blow. With the loss of a future star we also, almost certainly, saw the last of a past star and champion in Hurricane Fly. A horse I have seen three or more times win at Leopardstown and a horse I have only backed once and that was last time out and he lost! A true champion but he doesn't have the legs anymore. I cannot see any other contender from last year's race challenging next year, other than the first three home. Now I won quite a lot of money on JEZKI but by the start of the race and even after he won I was not convinced he was the best horse in the race. My initial view, shared by many and supported by the fact that THE NEW ONE lost by more than he was hampered by, was that the Twiston-Davies horse, was the best horse in the race. However JEZKI went onto to confirm his form at Punchestown and I do believe you have to give full credit to the actual winner of any race. They know how to ride JEZKI now, thanks to Tony McCoys guidance, (but so do his opponents), and he did battle really well up the hill. They have been trying to get MY TENT OR YOURS to settle better and if and when they achieve that he could improve enough to win a Champion Hurdle. It was interesting that Nicky Henderson (in explaining why he wouldn't be seen on the flat as it wouldn't be helpful), said that in the context of training him to win a champion Hurdle or Arkle. Why even mention the Arkle if the fact that JP owns Jezki? Especially as NIcky has just had a season where another champion Hurdle contender didn't tarnsfer his hurdle skills to the jumping game in Grandouet. Nicky cannot believe My Tent or Yours is a definate furture Champion Hurdle and is close to the Harrington stable. On reflection I am more convinced the finishing positions are how I would rate the three horse, for betting purposes, albeit not much separating the three. I know 5 year olds can and do win the Champion Hurdle but they need to be special and/or the crop of older 2 mile hurdlers needs to be below average. I did not see an outstanding four year old last season, although ANALIFET might have been such, and I do think the three horses already mentioned from last years renewal are at least upto the average level, so I will not be looking at any five year old for Ante Post betting purposes. When you look outside JEZKI, MY TENT OR YOURS and THE NEW ONE I keep coming back to Willie Mullins. Vautour, Faugheen, Annie Power, Un De Sceaux, Abbyssial, Analifet, Don Poli, Diakli and Wicklow Brave and I am sure Willie may have others! The problem is I am not sure even Willie knows which is his best Champion Hurdle hope. I have read that both Vautour and Faugheen, both of whon were seriously impressive, were bought as chasers and both could go chasing, (Vautour is favourite for the Arkle), so until I hear more definitive views from the stable, (which may not happen until the week before the festival!), I will not try to second guess Willie's hierarchy. However if Willie confirms either Vautour or Faugheen as being targetted at the Champion Hurdle, I would be seriously interested. Another trainer it is worth taking a serious look at is Nicky Henderson and it is stable that the market seems to have a better read on than Willie Mullins so any stable star that is significantly backed against My Tent or Yours would be of interest. So I will be keeping on the market on particulalry Vaniteaux and Josses Hill amongst others, but I really cannot see either being better than My Tent or Yours. So I have JEZKI, MY TENT OR YOURS, THE NEW ONE and Willie Mullins best as the horses I am interested in FOR ANTE POST PURPOSES and am looking for JEZKI any NRNB price of 9/2 or better MY TENT OR YOURS any NRNB price of 13/2 or better THE NEW ONE any NRNB price of 6/1 or better Willie Mullins best any NRNB price of 8/1 or better Nicky Henderson well supported ? Any Other any NRNB price of 20/1 or better

PADDY POWER GOLD CUP - FIRST IMPRESSIONS

I love this meeting. I went last year and was fortunate to pick out Great Endeavour and had a great day all round, meeting up with some old friends and winning to boot, you just cannot beat it. I will be coming back to this race as too many options as you will see. Any comments welcomed. This year the horse that sticks out on the ratings I use, and assuming he is at his peak, is WALK ON and due to Herbie Fogg, I find I am already on at 14/1, who put the animal up a couple of weeks ago. At his current price it is more difficult to be too bullish. I have the race down to four leading chances, (WALK ON, GRANDS CRUS, AL FEROF, and HUNT BALL) and four others I cannot rule completely, DIVERS, NADIYA DE LA VEGA, POQUELIN and WISHFULL THINKING). However the market has it about right and it looks difficult to Dutch for a decent profit at the current prices. POQUELIN and WISHFULL THINKING have an awful lot of weight and it is very difficult to believe there is not something better weighted lower down. While I cannot rule them out I am happy to leave them alone and Betfair would suggest they are not quietly fancied. So a shortlist of 6. Looking at least years race, DIVERS was 3rd off 144 with 5lbs overweight and now runs off 138 and has been given a pipe opener by Ferdy who clearly has targeted the horse at the race again and I expect him to run a big race. The nearer the ground to good and if no worse than good to soft, he has to be on the short list. On the ratings I use he is still,however some 10 to 15lbs behind the 4 market leaders. NADIYA DE LA VEGA won last time out, a trait that is a favourable indicator, and is another who looks as though she has been targeted. She has to prove she is up to this class and the market suggest another Henderson runner in Triolo D'alene is more fancied from the stable. See is saver material at best for me as against this quality of opposition there is not enough in the current price. She is one I would want to have another look on the day and see if there was any stable confidence, but only for cover purposes. It is very easy to see why GRANDS CRUS is favourite but equally the price is not in the least bit tempting. Given the price I could only consider him as cover because he is the most likely winner, but you are going to go bankrupt backing the favourite in the leading handicap chase on a saturday, particulalry at 2/1! HUNT BALL is an amazing horse from small time connections who will light up the winners enclosure should they win. This time last year he was winning a Novice Chase of 69 and now runs off 157 and although he has answered every call bar his last race in a Grade 1 at Aintree. That was at the end of a long season of 9 races and is entitled to have been feeling the effects. AL FEROF has never been out of the first four when ridden by Ruby and should be ideally suited to the course and distance. He has been well backed in the last few days but still offers each way appeal at 8/1. So for first impressions I have WALK ON MAIN FANCY Win bet GRANDS CRUS Worthy favourite but due to price Saver bet AL FEROF Possible each way bet @ 8/1+ 4 places HUNT BALL Possible winner and still offering value, possible Win bet DIVERS Possible winner and still offering value possible Win bet NADIYA DE LA VEGA Cannot rule out possible saver bet but review market

2012/12 NH SEASON ARKLE CHASE

Interestingly SIMONSIG is trading as the bookies favourite @ 7/2 but is 6.0 on Betfair and is trading on Betfair for the Champion Hurdle at a similar price as the traditional bookies at around 8/1, so perhaps he will be kept to hurdles in the short term to see if he is up to scratch, (and if so what does that say for the chances of Grandouet et al?). Regardless of Simonsig's target I always like to look for the Nicholls Arkle horse as I believe he is one of the best trainers of 2 mile chasers and his judgement is second to none. Paul Nicholls often introduces his best Arkle hope in the November Chase at the Paddy Power meeting and I hope he introduces HINTERLAD. Always regarded as a chasing type HINTERLAND showed he likes the Cheltenham course with a win a 2nd and a 3rd in 3 races last season as a hurdler. Trading at 17.0+ on Betfair I think he is worth a point at this stage with a view to topping up if indeed he does line up in November. ANTE POST BET ARKLE CHASE HINTERLAND 1 point win @ 17.0