GOLD CUP 2015 Initial Thoughts

Well, where do you start. After an era dominated by Nicholls with Kauto Star and Denman, we end the season with Nicholls having the top rated staying chaser in SILVINIACO CONTI, but a horse who wasn't able to finish in the first three in the Gold Cup! The first 6 home were separated by less than 7 lengths and where the winner could not be picked out after the second last or last or even at the finishing line. At one level I could not rule out any of those finishing in the fitst six but surely it opens the race wide open? THe first six home were LORD WINDERMERE, ON HIS OWN, THE GIANT BOLSTER, SILVINIACO CONTI, BOBS WORTH and LYREEN LEGEND. ON HIS OWN will be 11 and has already run 14 chases and THE GIANT BOLSTER whilst a year younger has run 20 chases and both are exposed. I cannot have Last Instalment, a fragile horse who unseated rider when beginning to tire in the Gold Cup and in anycase I would be surprised if connections risked him on good ground at Cheltenham. CUE CARD was a notable absentee from the race and had been my Ante Post fancy. We still get a decent price about a proven Grade 1 performer because of the doubt over his stamina, especially after his beating by SILVINIACO CONTI in the King George when seemingly having the race sewn up. On reflection I will be dissappointed if either win the Gold Cup next season. DYNASTE was the best horse going into the Ryanair and duly performed as such but then was beaten, again by that horse SILVINIACO CONTI, so again a definate possible but a dissappointing winner? THe RSA looked an average renewal beforehand and didn't produce anyhting to suggest a superstar. Nevertheless, in a season without any real star and those open to improvement likely to come to the fore, the first six home could not be ruled out. O'FAOLAINS BOY, SMAD PLACE, MORNING ASSEMBLY, BALLYCASEY, SAM WINNER and CARLINGFORD LOUGH all, have the potential to develop without screaming out future Gold Cup winner. However the top rated Novice on official ratings is HOLYWELL, who does demand respect. Winning his last 4 chases and a winner both times he has visited the festival, he ended the season winning the Grade 1 Novice Chase at Aintree including the RSA victor O'FAOLAINS BOY, and it it would be surprising if connections did not target the Gold Cup in 2015. Having said that I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't really wound up until the big day and we may get a better price during the season than the 12/1 currently available. One other horse I want to mention was my early Ante post selection for the race and that is SIR DES CHAMPS. Unfortunately he never made it to the race but he is one to keep an eye once we know he is back to his best. He was beaten by BOBS WORTH and First Lieutenant, (A horse who seems to find one or two too good in the big races), at Leopardstown, with no obvious excuses, so again inconclusive. This looks at this stage one of the widest open Gold Cus for many a season and therefore is race I definately do not want to bet without NRNB or at least without knowing the horse is clearly being targetted at the race. The proven stayers I am interested in are SILVINIACO CONTI, LORD WINDERMEMRE, BOBS WORTH, SIR DES CHAMPS, CUE CARD and DYNASTE but would be disappointed if the winner came form this group. If they show they are in form and being targetted at the race they may become of interest. Of the novices I will be watching all of HOLYWELL, O'FAOLAIANS BOY, SMAD PLACE, MORNING ASSEMBLY, BALLYCASEY, SAM WINNER, and CARLINGFORD LOUGH. So I AM LOOKING FOR AT LEAST 25/1 NRNB or 16/1 definately targetted at the race and proven fit and well.