CHAMPION HURDLE 2015 Initial Thoughts

As a starter for ten I thought I would have an early look at the major Cheltenham Festival races for 2015 starting with the Champion Hurdle. The intention is to cover the major Grade 1 races at the festival over the next 6 months and then keep them updated as more information becomes available. I will say now I am a big fan of Paul Jones and will be leaning on him for in season updates to my portfolio. He made a loss on his outright tips last year but you need to read the whole of his very comprehensive weekly updates to get the full value of his service, (plug over and no I do not receive any backhanders for saying so), coupled with my own statistical analysis and form ratings. I have decided on a change to my Ante Post betting for 2015 and will now only be betting NRNB. This is not because I have not been profitable, although that has been due to luck as much as skill over the last two festivals!, more that last year the major bookmakers and more so Betfair seemed very tight and I do not have enough capital to tie up for such a long time and keep enough of a bank for my regular betting. I expect there will be the odd exception but that is rule I am looking to maintain. Right onto the Champion Hurdle. The best place to start is always the previous renewal. It was a very sad day when we lost Our Connor. This horse was destined to be a future champion but never got the chance to show it. In addition the owner had declared any winnings would be donated to charity, so it was a a double blow. With the loss of a future star we also, almost certainly, saw the last of a past star and champion in Hurricane Fly. A horse I have seen three or more times win at Leopardstown and a horse I have only backed once and that was last time out and he lost! A true champion but he doesn't have the legs anymore. I cannot see any other contender from last year's race challenging next year, other than the first three home. Now I won quite a lot of money on JEZKI but by the start of the race and even after he won I was not convinced he was the best horse in the race. My initial view, shared by many and supported by the fact that THE NEW ONE lost by more than he was hampered by, was that the Twiston-Davies horse, was the best horse in the race. However JEZKI went onto to confirm his form at Punchestown and I do believe you have to give full credit to the actual winner of any race. They know how to ride JEZKI now, thanks to Tony McCoys guidance, (but so do his opponents), and he did battle really well up the hill. They have been trying to get MY TENT OR YOURS to settle better and if and when they achieve that he could improve enough to win a Champion Hurdle. It was interesting that Nicky Henderson (in explaining why he wouldn't be seen on the flat as it wouldn't be helpful), said that in the context of training him to win a champion Hurdle or Arkle. Why even mention the Arkle if the fact that JP owns Jezki? Especially as NIcky has just had a season where another champion Hurdle contender didn't tarnsfer his hurdle skills to the jumping game in Grandouet. Nicky cannot believe My Tent or Yours is a definate furture Champion Hurdle and is close to the Harrington stable. On reflection I am more convinced the finishing positions are how I would rate the three horse, for betting purposes, albeit not much separating the three. I know 5 year olds can and do win the Champion Hurdle but they need to be special and/or the crop of older 2 mile hurdlers needs to be below average. I did not see an outstanding four year old last season, although ANALIFET might have been such, and I do think the three horses already mentioned from last years renewal are at least upto the average level, so I will not be looking at any five year old for Ante Post betting purposes. When you look outside JEZKI, MY TENT OR YOURS and THE NEW ONE I keep coming back to Willie Mullins. Vautour, Faugheen, Annie Power, Un De Sceaux, Abbyssial, Analifet, Don Poli, Diakli and Wicklow Brave and I am sure Willie may have others! The problem is I am not sure even Willie knows which is his best Champion Hurdle hope. I have read that both Vautour and Faugheen, both of whon were seriously impressive, were bought as chasers and both could go chasing, (Vautour is favourite for the Arkle), so until I hear more definitive views from the stable, (which may not happen until the week before the festival!), I will not try to second guess Willie's hierarchy. However if Willie confirms either Vautour or Faugheen as being targetted at the Champion Hurdle, I would be seriously interested. Another trainer it is worth taking a serious look at is Nicky Henderson and it is stable that the market seems to have a better read on than Willie Mullins so any stable star that is significantly backed against My Tent or Yours would be of interest. So I will be keeping on the market on particulalry Vaniteaux and Josses Hill amongst others, but I really cannot see either being better than My Tent or Yours. So I have JEZKI, MY TENT OR YOURS, THE NEW ONE and Willie Mullins best as the horses I am interested in FOR ANTE POST PURPOSES and am looking for JEZKI any NRNB price of 9/2 or better MY TENT OR YOURS any NRNB price of 13/2 or better THE NEW ONE any NRNB price of 6/1 or better Willie Mullins best any NRNB price of 8/1 or better Nicky Henderson well supported ? Any Other any NRNB price of 20/1 or better