I don't believe it; National Hunt in June!

I can't believe I am writing this blog in June just after Royal Ascot has finished.

I am a keen National Hunt fan and hadn't intended posting until September time.

This is my second year on the net with my website (www.cheltenhamchampions.com) and with the first year and no pedigree I was pleased when I had a successful festival such that for next season I could now "advertise" my website with greater conviction, but clearly I would start gearing up in September not June.

So what sparked me to blog this early?

I got my first member for 2009/10!

If someone else is that keen I thought why not track my developments from now until the start of the season?

So what have I been doing?

I have just finished updating my stats for the festival and starting in detail going through the ante post lists for the key races. Yes, it is too early to tie your money up but I want to be ahead of the game come the time the season starts and Mark Howard, Timeform et al begin their previews and certain prices start to go.

For now, I cannot see why Denman is still 8/1 (in two places) and cannot see that lasting. Yes he is very dificult to get fit, and there is a question wether he will ever get back to his best, but I don't think they will make any mistakes this year and injury apart fully expect him to be vying for favouritism come March. Kauto star is a class horse and may well be able to defy the stats around the number of races he has run but the value lies with Denamn at the moment. Notre Pere needs soft and if he doesn't get his ground he will not run but I think that is factored into his price and the 25/1 on betfair looks very reasonable. Cooldine may make up into a Challenger but he needs to prove he is before 12/1 is any value. Big Bucks won't run if Kauto Star and Denman remain at the top of their games. Imperial commander has to prove he can stay and Barbers Shop needs to show he has improved.

I learned a lot from my first year about running a service and will post my thoughts here over the next few weeks.

The first thing I would say is that tipping is much harder than winning at racing. I subscribe to the mathematician service http://www.mathematician-racing.co.uk (which imo is the most honest and professional service out there) and Guy has always maintained that it is a terrible business and I now have some insight to what he means.

More of the lessons learned and more early ante post thoughts next week.