Well I have updated (using Easyodds) all my horses to follow based on my own list plus One Jump Ahead plus John Morris and Paul Ferguson.
I am not sure I have been discriminating enough but the art will be to only back one of the listed to follow when a) conditions are in the selections favour; b) based on an analysis of all runners the selection is well in on the form ratings; c) the selection meets the basic trends for the race in question; d) the horse is avaiable at value odds and the frame of the race is attractive; and finally e) the trainer and jockey are not out of form in the last 14 days (> 5% S/R) and the trainer and jockey have a good record at the course (> 10% for at least one of them);
My offer of a free trial during October is going well with a very good take up (www.cheltenhamchampions.com), and I am confident my list of horses to follow which I will release in the 2nd week of the free trial will pay there way during the season and believe it will be worth signing up for the free trial alone (but I would say that wouldn't I!).
Had my first bet of the National hunt season on Kangaroo Court. I had wanted to take on Seven is my Number and got what I thought was a good price about Kangaroo Court only to find Seven is my Number being withdrawn, leaving Kangaroo Court odds-on! He duly won nicely but the cut for the Arkle was an over reaction to say the least. I think Kangaroo Court is definately one to follow but I don't think he is even the best 2 mile novice chaser in Emma Lavelle's yard let alone the Arkle winner. Interestingly Seven is my Number came out a couple of days later and won nicely so it might have been an interesting race but I still believe Kangaroo Court would have prevailed.
Anyway my blogs may be a little more erratic given I will be spending most of my time on my weekly e-mail to members.
Sunday, 27 September 2009
Thursday, 17 September 2009
Mark Howard and One Jump Ahead
I received my copy of One Jump Ahead and have been working through updating my horses to follow. The publication is excellent value at £7.99 and if you have never purchased a copy I thoroughly recommend that you pop into WH Smiths and grab yourself one. I subscribe to the updates but I would not say they were as such good value. They are not bad value it's just the book is VERY good value!
I look forward to articles by Declan Phelan and Anthony Bromley as well as Mark's top 40. With regard the latter you have to respect his view since he interviewed connections and he is experienced enough to be able to read between the lines and to recognise the relative strengths of a trainers views.
I am awaiting John Morris's Jumping Prospects and will blog my thoughts in due course.
Nothing new to report on Cheltenham and no new updates on my website www.cheltenhamchampions.com but I am pleased with the level of interest, particulalry for the free October trial.
I would say that looking forward to the festival, the novice events are looking as competitive as ever.
I have also started to update my Aintree stats and was surprised at a couple of things which has prompted me to look to try to set some time aside to go into the trends in much more detail. Most of my work is geared towards Cheltenham and I have normally lost interest come April but it seems there could be some good angles to take forward from Cheltenham to Aintree.
I look forward to articles by Declan Phelan and Anthony Bromley as well as Mark's top 40. With regard the latter you have to respect his view since he interviewed connections and he is experienced enough to be able to read between the lines and to recognise the relative strengths of a trainers views.
I am awaiting John Morris's Jumping Prospects and will blog my thoughts in due course.
Nothing new to report on Cheltenham and no new updates on my website www.cheltenhamchampions.com but I am pleased with the level of interest, particulalry for the free October trial.
I would say that looking forward to the festival, the novice events are looking as competitive as ever.
I have also started to update my Aintree stats and was surprised at a couple of things which has prompted me to look to try to set some time aside to go into the trends in much more detail. Most of my work is geared towards Cheltenham and I have normally lost interest come April but it seems there could be some good angles to take forward from Cheltenham to Aintree.
Wednesday, 9 September 2009
Paul Nicholls Open Day and the Arkle
I was reading about Paul Nicholls open Day feedback in the Racing Post and have had a good bet to lay back at some time in the future. Now I say quite openly and up front I have already had a small bet on Betfair and plan to lay back either just before it runs or after if I decide to let it run and (hopefully) win. The horse is Tataniano for the Arkle. I have always believed Paul Nicholls to be the number one trainer when it comes to 2 mile chasers and I used to look for the Nicholls' and Pipe (and since the retirment of Martin, Alan King's), 2 mile Novice chasers as ante post propositions as early as possible, as they were sure to be backed in. We had Tatenen last year and this year we have Tataniano. He has run three times at 19f or less and won all three and has a course win at 17f, which he won by 21 lengths.
Now that race was only a Class 2 but his rating over hurdles is comparable to last years winner and it is clear from the open day that he is being targetted at the race. I cannot believe the 25/1 with Bet365 will last long but I have backed it on Betfair as I am most likely to look to lay the bet off. We only need a positive mention in the Racing Post from Paul Nicholls before he runs next season and he will surely shorten to at least 16/1. This is looking a very competitve division this year with a number of 2 mile hurdles (such as Crack Away Jack and Sizing Europe possibly going chasing), and I have a lot of respect for horses such as Sommersby and Copper Bleu that were always going to be better chasers than hurdlers.
This is a race where we need to wait and see horses jump at speed and I would not notrmally be looking to bet until just after Christmas but I really cannot see Tataniano being bigger then 16/1 come November/December. This is a trading bet though at this stage of the season.
Now that race was only a Class 2 but his rating over hurdles is comparable to last years winner and it is clear from the open day that he is being targetted at the race. I cannot believe the 25/1 with Bet365 will last long but I have backed it on Betfair as I am most likely to look to lay the bet off. We only need a positive mention in the Racing Post from Paul Nicholls before he runs next season and he will surely shorten to at least 16/1. This is looking a very competitve division this year with a number of 2 mile hurdles (such as Crack Away Jack and Sizing Europe possibly going chasing), and I have a lot of respect for horses such as Sommersby and Copper Bleu that were always going to be better chasers than hurdlers.
This is a race where we need to wait and see horses jump at speed and I would not notrmally be looking to bet until just after Christmas but I really cannot see Tataniano being bigger then 16/1 come November/December. This is a trading bet though at this stage of the season.
Sunday, 6 September 2009
ISIRIS is back!
I follow JP's betting blog and am really pleased he has resubscribed to Isiris so I can follow that services progress. I was with Isiris for most of the last 14 years. I wish Kevin every success but I believe other services offer much better value for money these days without the angst of trying to get the advertised prices. I suspect prices may hold up a little better these days as I would imagine numbers are down on the hey day and I hope JP makes a success. I will miss Kevin's Ante Post advices as that was one part of the service I did enjoy and did make a profit out of.
I don't know whether it is the same person but I also noted JP's Cheltenham blog has posted his first thoughts, putting up Forpadydeplasterer as his QMCC tip. The Arkle winner does have a fantastic profile if lining up in the QMCC the following year and 20/1 is a decent price. He has been first or second in every race he has run in bar one when he was 4th. You have to put Kalahari King and Barker in the race with a similar chance with at least the former having the the important benefit of being confirmed as being targetted at the race. I don't expect many will be in contention for this and an each way shot at 16/1+ once the target has been confirmed is not a bad play on any of those three. Personally I am coupling those mentioned with Masterminded Big Zeb and Petit Robin on Betfair as the prices allow, until I am clearer about racing plans.
Three horses I would consider betting if the prices would allow are DUNGUIB for the Supreme Novices; HURRICANE FLY for the Champion Hurdle and BIG BUCKS for the World Hurdle, but they would need to be at least 6/1+ for me to go in. BIG BUCKS is the safest of the three having been there and done it. There is always the doubt he may go for the Gold Cup if anything happened to Kauto Star and/or Denman. Also he does race in a way that it would not be totally unexpected if he put in a bad performance and if he did, (and Paul Nicholls confirmed he had come out of it ok) could see the price drift enough to play. Both HURRICANE FLY and DUNGUIB have to prove they can jump at speed and I am happy to pass them over for the moment. HURRICANE FLY is making the market for my two main fancies for the Champion Hurdle in BINOCULAR and CELESTIAL HALO and am very happy to wait and see how the season develops having taken 6/1 & 13/2 and 14/1. Certainly backing horses at less then 6/1 ante post is a sure way to lose money in the long run, it must be 2/1 any horse gets to the race in one piece let alone in form and with a winning chance.
I don't know whether it is the same person but I also noted JP's Cheltenham blog has posted his first thoughts, putting up Forpadydeplasterer as his QMCC tip. The Arkle winner does have a fantastic profile if lining up in the QMCC the following year and 20/1 is a decent price. He has been first or second in every race he has run in bar one when he was 4th. You have to put Kalahari King and Barker in the race with a similar chance with at least the former having the the important benefit of being confirmed as being targetted at the race. I don't expect many will be in contention for this and an each way shot at 16/1+ once the target has been confirmed is not a bad play on any of those three. Personally I am coupling those mentioned with Masterminded Big Zeb and Petit Robin on Betfair as the prices allow, until I am clearer about racing plans.
Three horses I would consider betting if the prices would allow are DUNGUIB for the Supreme Novices; HURRICANE FLY for the Champion Hurdle and BIG BUCKS for the World Hurdle, but they would need to be at least 6/1+ for me to go in. BIG BUCKS is the safest of the three having been there and done it. There is always the doubt he may go for the Gold Cup if anything happened to Kauto Star and/or Denman. Also he does race in a way that it would not be totally unexpected if he put in a bad performance and if he did, (and Paul Nicholls confirmed he had come out of it ok) could see the price drift enough to play. Both HURRICANE FLY and DUNGUIB have to prove they can jump at speed and I am happy to pass them over for the moment. HURRICANE FLY is making the market for my two main fancies for the Champion Hurdle in BINOCULAR and CELESTIAL HALO and am very happy to wait and see how the season develops having taken 6/1 & 13/2 and 14/1. Certainly backing horses at less then 6/1 ante post is a sure way to lose money in the long run, it must be 2/1 any horse gets to the race in one piece let alone in form and with a winning chance.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)