2012/12 NH SEASON ARKLE CHASE

Interestingly SIMONSIG is trading as the bookies favourite @ 7/2 but is 6.0 on Betfair and is trading on Betfair for the Champion Hurdle at a similar price as the traditional bookies at around 8/1, so perhaps he will be kept to hurdles in the short term to see if he is up to scratch, (and if so what does that say for the chances of Grandouet et al?). Regardless of Simonsig's target I always like to look for the Nicholls Arkle horse as I believe he is one of the best trainers of 2 mile chasers and his judgement is second to none. Paul Nicholls often introduces his best Arkle hope in the November Chase at the Paddy Power meeting and I hope he introduces HINTERLAD. Always regarded as a chasing type HINTERLAND showed he likes the Cheltenham course with a win a 2nd and a 3rd in 3 races last season as a hurdler. Trading at 17.0+ on Betfair I think he is worth a point at this stage with a view to topping up if indeed he does line up in November. ANTE POST BET ARKLE CHASE HINTERLAND 1 point win @ 17.0

2012/13 NH SEASON ANTE POST BETS

Having considered the four major races the ante post bets recommended so far are CHAMPION HURDLE CINDERS AND ASHES 2 pts win @ 14/1 ZARKANDAR 2 pts win @ 14/1 GOLD CUP FIRST LIEUTENANT 2 pts @ 16/1

2012 NH Season Gold Cup

An intriguing contest. For me one of the most competitive and difficult races to get a handle on this season. We have Nicky Henderson (LONG RUN, BOBS WORTH and Burton Port-being talked of as a Grand National possible) v Gigginstown (SIR DES CHAMPS, FIRST LIEUTENANT and LAST INSTALMENT) but even if we stopped there I wouldn't be sure we'd even got the connections leading hope by the time we get to the race! I think people may be being too quick in suggesting LONG RUN is past his best. He has consistently put in some big numbers and remains a key contender. He hasn't progressed as mush as might have been expected from such a young horse and did appear to be caught for toe last year. For me his jockey will always be a negative but he can only do what the horse is capable of delivering and I don't think he did much wrong last year. In three visits to the festival he not been out of the first three and I will be betting him to repeat that this season. SIR DES CHAMPS has won his last 8 races, 7 of those trained by Mullins and 2 of those victories came on his 2 visits to the festival. He appears to be Willie Mullins' number one favourite comparing him to his best staying chaser Florida Pearl (who just didn't quite get the Gold Cup trip) and he is confidently being campaigned with this race in mind. He has to improve and prove he will get the trip and although I have the utmost respect for Willie's judgement from a betting point of view the confidence behind SIR DES CHAMPS is giving us tremendous value elsewhere in the market. I love BOBS WORTH and he has done me a favour at the last two festivals and with 4 wins from 4 visits to the course he has to be on any short list. Closely rated with BOBS WORTH is FIRST LIEUTENANT who was only 2 1/2 lengths behind him in last years RSA Chase and the year before beat Rock On Ruby in the Neptune and to be honest there shouldn't really be much difference in price between the two and certainly 8/1 about BOBS WORTH and 16/1 about FIRST LIEUTENANT seems wrong. Interestingly the fact that SIR DES CHAMPS is another Gigginstown horse and is strongly fancied ahead of FIRST LIEUTENANT must give some credence to Willies enthusiasm, coupled with the fact Willie had Call The Police behind FIRST LIEUTENANT in the RSA so should have some handle on their respective merits. Last season I got the impression LAST INSTALMENT was favoured ahead of FIRST LIEUTENANT by Davy Russell and indeed he had comprehensively beaten him by 6 lengths over 3 miles, so at 25/1 must offer value. The problem however, with LAST INSTALLMENT, is that until he has been back and proven he is over his injury he is a speculative bet ante post. It is interesting I have identified 5 horses with leading credentials and haven't even mentioned the best staying chaser of our time. Kauto Star remains in training and was indeed impressive in his early races last season but was found out yet gain come the Gold Cup and I doubt he will even line up this season and will be retired after an early season victory. I have made money opposing him over the last 3 years but whatever happens I respect him tremendously and hope he stays safe and sound. Other ex champions back in training include Imperial Commander and Weapons Amnesty but as for Last Installment we need to see these horses back on the track proving they retain their ability but even then at 12 and 10 respectively I cannot see them recapturing their crown. David Pipe believes we should forget about GRANDS CRUS's run in the RSA and he hopes he can still make up into a Gold Cup horse. He was a strong favourite for the RSA Chase last year and is clearly very talented. I am not yet convinced and will be looking to back him during the season and then making a judgement on his stamina and the opposition closer to the race. Hunt Ball has to improve again! to be competitive and I don't expect him to be able to do that. The Giant Bolster ran a tremendous race in 2nd last year but he is unlikely to ever win the race. Flemenstar is highly regarded but I am very reluctant to back ante post in this race a horse who has not yet proven himself at Cheltenham, so he is easily passed over. A similar comment applies to Hidden Cyclone who has not run at HQ yet. Although beaten by SIR DES CHAMPS connections reported he returned poorly and he could be an interesting outsider if he can show he has the stamina and the course. I can't have Time For Rupert, (not good enough) or Silviniaco Conti, (better on flat tracks). There are any number of other classy horses who may try the trip, (Captain Chris, Cue Card etc) but until they actually prove they can get over 3 miles at championship pace on a course like Cheltenham they really cannot be on the short list. In summary I think Henderson and Gigginstown have very strong hands. At the prices LONG RUN at 10/1 and FIRST LIEUTENANT at 16/1 represent the best value ante post but I will leave a bet on LONG RUN as I want to back him each way and he is likely to be beaten or run unimpressively early season and I may get a bigger price. I will not let BOBS WORTH go unbacked but want a bit bigger than 8/1 ante post and on the day I will want to save on SIR DES CHAMPS if he lives up to expectations. TO IDENTIFY NEW CONTENDERS EXAMINE AND CONSIDER a) ANY NEW HORSE THAT TRADES AT 40.0 OR LESS ON BETFAIR b) RETURNS A RPR >= 164 IN A 3m+ RACE C) CONTESTS KING GEORGE KEMPTON DECEMBER; LEXUS CHASE LEOPARDSTOWN DECEMBER; d) WINS A GRADED CHASE DURING THE SEASON

2012/13 NH Season and the World Hurdle

It has been a real privilege to see BIG BUCKS win a record number of World Hurdles. Every year the layers take him on and offer odds against and every time he rises to the challenge. 6/4 is on offer again, which has to be better value than 5/4 about Sprinter Sacre but nevertheless is too short ante post, with him getting older and more prone to injury or deterioration of his talents. I honestly thought VOLER LA VEDETTE came to win the race last year and did everything tactically to avoid getting into a battle with BIG BUCKS but still the beast fought back. Connections of the champion are treading the same path as last year and at the moment it is impossible to see any other result. However he cannot carry on forever and opposing short priced horses at the festival will make money in the long run. The problem is it is difficult to find credible opposition. If VOLER LA VEDETTE re-opposes she has to be in the mix, as does SMAD PLACE who ran a very creditable race in 3rd considering it was only his second race of the season and he was only 5 years old. Connections are going to give him one more hurdle race to see they should stay in that sphere or go chasing. I have backed him for the RSA Chase and will back in his first hurdle race to get my stake back if he wins. If he does win and connections decide to stay hurdling I will strongly consider a bet each way at 8/1 or bigger. At this stage I cannot really consider any other runner for an ante post bet. Indeed on reflection the 25/1 with Chandlers is tempting even though he may go chasing, but fortunately or unforunately they closed my account some time ago, (#notaproperbookieanymore) WILLIE MULLINS (Thousand Stars, Mourad and Quevega) and ALAN KING (Lovcen-will be given 1 race over hurdles possibly the 3 mile hurdle at Paddy Power meeting to decide his future), are trainers who if they have a runner in the World Hurdle have to be respected and I will be monitoring their entries for the race. However Mourad has had his chances, Quevega will go for the Mares Hurdle again and Thousand Stars as amazingly tough as he is has to be too exposed for this season. Of others quoted in the betting. Oscar Whiskey had his best chance last year and didn't appear to get the trip. Zarkandar is going for the Champion Hurdle and it is never good idea backing credible champion hurdle contenders for this race and Countrywide Flame is a 5 year old and similarly it is never a good idea backing such animals in this race. Peddlers Cross could develop into challenger, but if the trainer is not sure of his target then how can I be? TO IDENTIFY NEW CONTENDERS EXAMINE AND CONSIDER a) ANY NEW HORSE THAT TRADES AT 40.0 OR LESS ON BETFAIR b) RETURNS A RPR >= 159 IN A 3m+ RACE C) CONTESTS LONG DISTANCE HURDLE NEWBURY NOVEMBER; LONG WALK HURDLE ASCOT DECEMBER; CLEEVE HURDLE CHELTENHAM JANUARY; RENDELSHAM HURDLE HAYDOCK FEBRUARY; d) WINS A GRADED HURDLE DURING THE SEASON

NH Season 2012/13 Queen Mother Champion Chase

The previous seasons QMCC featured five of the last 11 winners. Given Big Zeb was beaten 15 lengths into third and will be 12 next year that suggests SIZING EUROPE and FINIANS RAINBOW should be considered. The last 13 Arkle winners that have gone on to compete in the QMCC have been at least placed with 6 winning. This suggests SPRINTER SACRE is firmly in the mix. The manner of his victory at last years festival was electrifying and his time was excellent. Trained by Henderson again who also trains FINIANS RAINBOW and such is the regard connections have for SPRINTER SACRE, there is talk of stepping up FINIANS RAINBOW in trip. Of course Henderson has other stars at that trip as well, not least of all Riverside Theatre and it would not be a surprise to see FINIANS RAINBOW line up here where stamina is important. Championship races are run at real pace and you really need a horse that can get 2m 4f under normal race conditions. 11 of the last 12 winners have had an Official Rating of at least 160. That brings in SANCTUAIRE who Nicholls is already on record as saying he could be one of his best 2 mile chasers ever. This from a man who has trained multiple 2 mile festival chase winners, including Master Minded, and Azertyuiop, is praise indeed. Added to his trainers confidence is the memory of SANCTUAIRE easily winning the Fred Winter in 2010, on only his second start in this country. Another Nicholls contender is Al Ferof but I expect him to be stepped up in trip this season and a third from the same stable is Edgardo Sol, who is on the fringes. Very versatile over hurdles and fences he hasn't won above grade 3 and Nicholls doesn't seem to talk with a real buzz, so another to keep an eye on but not back at this stage. Similalry CUE CARD, who was a well beaten second in last years Arkle, cannot be ignored but until we know his best trip I want to see how he is campaigned. He is certainly a horse I will be looking to back this season as I think having been over hyped earlier in his career, he is now too easily dismissed and I expect him to go off too big a price to ignore. A very talented horse. Somersby is also an under-rated horse but in 5 trips to Chletenham he hasn't won and his 2 graded chase wins at 16f/17f were both on Right-handed tracks. Grands Crus is quoted in the betting but his trainer is talking of 3 miles and the Gold Cup even though he flopped in the RSA Chase, (scoped dirty afterwards and his trainer believes the performance should be ignored), and it would seem more likely he would line up in the Ryanair if the Gold Cup was ruled out. MENORAH was a very talented hurdler and should not be ruled out. He made a mistake in last years Arkle so he needs to be given another chance. He could take part in the Haldon Gold Cup and/or the Tingle Creek. He has won 3 times at Cheltenham and has won a Grade 1 Chase and is rated officially 160, so has to in the mix. Flemenstar is a highly regarded Irish horse but connections are talking of training him for the Gold Cup so an unlikely starter. In summary it is very difficult to see past SPRINTER SACRE but at 5/4 is no value at this stage. SIZING EUROPE, SANCTUAIRE, and FINIANS RAINBOW are three credible and worthy challengers. Each way possibly given we get 1/4 the odds at 12/1 or bigger they could be interesting, (be wary of Hills who are going 1/5 the odds). However what is putting me off FINIANS RAINBOW is the possibility he will be stepped up in trip, SIZING EUROPE is trading 19.0 on Betfair and SANCTUAIRE still has it to prove it for me. I have dutched the four on Betfair to small stakes at this stage as I cannot see anything else getting a look-in but I will be looking at the entries for the Tingle Creek and making further decisions at that time. TO IDENTIFY NEW CONTENDERS EXAMINE AND CONSIDER a) ANY NEW HORSE THAT TRADES AT 40.0 OR LESS ON BETFAIR b) RETURNS A RPR >= 163 IN A 16F/17F RACE C) CONTESTS TINGLE CREEK SANDOWN DECEMBER; GRADE 1 CHASE 2M LEOPARDSTOWN DECEMBER; TIED COTTAGE CHASE PUNCHESTOWN JANUARY; VICTOR CHANDLER CHASE ASCOT JANUARY; GAME SPIRIT CHASE NEWBURY FEBRUARY d) WINS A GRADED CHASE DURING THE SEASON

NH Season 21012/13 Ante Post Guidelines

More of a reminder to myself my guidelines for ante post betting for the Cheltenham Festival, (not rules as any guideline can be broken given sufficient reason and a value price), include a) Do not back a horse who has had any part of last season off injured, particularly if they have not run yet this season (e.g. Spirit Son, Invictus, Battonier!!); b) Be wary of backing any horse where the betfair price is bigger than the best traditional bookmakers price. Betfair layers are not stupid and they will have very good reason to be offering a bigger price and you need to know what that reason is and why you don't agree before playing), For similar reasons be very wary of backing any horse trading at 50.0 or bigger on Betfair; c) Do not back any horse where there is no money on the layside on betfair, (i.e. people looking to back) d) Be wary of any horse ante post who has not run at the festival before unless it has run well at Cheltenham and shown it can peak in March. Clearly this is less relevant in novice events, but then you need to know a horse has run well in March, can race left handed at pace and has sufficient stamina; e) Do not place a bet before running the horse through the key trends for the race; f) Be wary of backing a horse where the connections have not verified the target, unless the target is unambiguous. It is understandable that often connections will not be clear until they know the going conditions, the opposition, the potential of their other contenders, the availability of a particular jockey etc. However the form book will often be clear over what is a horses optimum trip on good to soft going and this can be a very good indicator, although be careful with novices who can be stepped up in trip. You should be particularly careful in the novice events. For instance horses going for the Triumph could switch to the Supreme or go for the Fred Winter Handicap, or horses going for the Neptune could be stepped up to the AB Spa Hurdle or stepped down to the Supreme and not even connections are certain until the New Year or later. g) Do not back a horse who has shown their best form on soft going. It is rarely soft at the festival and you will lose more money backing such horses than waiting until closer to the day and taking a shorter price. I would welcome any additions?

2012/13 NH Season and the Champion Hurdle

Not long to go now with Mark Howard's One Jump Ahead arriving this week. Always an excellent read and first guide to plans of some key horses. I noticed that Spirit Son did not appear in Henderson's review and then heard he had been very ill and unlikely to race again. Sad as I really thought this horse could win the Champion Hurdle. Talking of the Champion Hurdle here are my initial thoughts. All the horses in bold are potential bets at the right price. A competitive division with Henderson having GRANDOUET(already proven form but could be just short of top class), Darlan (promising but still to prove it, "a chaser in the making" could start off in Greatwood to see if up to standard his trainer thinks he is, a JP horse so be interesting what Tony McCoy chooses), SIMONSIG (likely to go chasing - although it is interesting he is trading shorter on Betfair than Grandouet, so perhaps a change of plans?), Oscar Whiskey (the fact that they aimed him at the World Hurdle when many judges felt he had a better chance in the Champion Hurdle and were right, surely suggests connections felt one or more of Grandouet, Binocular or Spirit Son had better chances), and Binocular (surely has had his chances and as a 9 year old next year I want to see at least 3 races in season before considering backing). Although I believe GRANDOUET is Henderson's best shot this season, it will pay to see which the stable most fancy given the array of talent they have. This is not always easy, but with sensible watching of the Betfair market and carefully listening to any connections commnets it might be possible. Certainly as the race gets closer this should get easier. HURRICANE FLY is a worthy favourite but it is very difficult for champions to win it again in non consecutive years and he is one I would look to save on the day rather than back ante post. Similarly ROCK ON RUBY is too short to back ante post and I really find it hard to believe he can win it again. I have to be careful as I didn't fancy him at all last year and lost on the race as a result so I need to keep objective. Both he and Hurricane Fly have shown they are well capable of winning it and if one or both are there again on the day I will have to save on them but really cannot see either winning. Having said that, if either have a bad trial race and drift into double figures and I can identify a sensible reason for the defeat I will strongly consider a bet. I don't like backing 5 year olds for this race so can leave Grumetti and Countrywide Flame alone and see how they and any other juveniles measures up during the season. Other than Hurricane Fly the Irish don't have anything I am worried about, Galileos Choice is a possible improver but will have to prove it first), at this stage but will monitor their racing just in case. The two I like are CINDERS AND ASHES and ZARKANDAR and I have backed both at 14/1. Their trainers have confirmed that the initial plans are the Champion Hurdle and with Donald McCain and Paul Nicholls, they are in very able hands. McCain was very keen on Cinders for the Supreme and immediately afterwards was talking about the Champion Hurdle. Given he had Overturn, (likely to go novice chasing), run second in the race last year and Peddlers Cross, (considering a step up in trip over hurdles), run second the year before you have to believe Cinders must have a really good chance. Zarkandar has already put up a very classy form figure when finishing fifth last year in the race when only five and on only his fifth hurdle race, and is definitely over priced in my opinion. A number of Nicholls' horses did not run up to their true mark at the festival last year and we now Know Rock On Ruby was trained by Harry Fry. Both are proven at Cheltenham and have shown they can peak in March, (Cinders was 5th in the Champion Bumper and Zarkandar won the Triumph Hurdle). I am likely to go in again after their first runs of the season. I will be keen to see what McCain does with PEDDLERS CROSS who I expect to step up in trip but he is another I will be watching carefully if McCain decides 2 miles is his trip as he believes he is back to his best. The Greatwood Hurdle will give us the first clue of other contenders as it is race often used by trainers to see how they stand with horses well handicapped but who have promise, but the first real test is the International at the December Cheltenham meeting. TO IDENTIFY NEW CONTENDERS EXAMINE AND CONSIDER a) ANY NEW HORSE THAT TRADES AT 40.0 OR LESS ON BETFAIR b) RETURNS A RPR >= 163 IN A 16F/17F RACE C) CONTESTS INTERNATIONAL HURDLE CHELTENHAM DECEMBER; FIGHTING FIFTH HURDLE NEWCASTLE DECEMBER; FESTIVAL HURDLE LEOPARDSTOWN DECEMBER; HATTONS GRACE HURDLE FAIRYHOUSE DECEMBER; CHRISTMAS HURDLE KEMPTON DECEMBER; IRISH CHAMPION HURDLE LEOPARDSTOWN JANUARY; KINGWELL HURDLE WINCANTON FEBRUARY; d) WINS A GRADED HURDLE DURING THE SEASON