2012 NH Season Gold Cup

An intriguing contest. For me one of the most competitive and difficult races to get a handle on this season. We have Nicky Henderson (LONG RUN, BOBS WORTH and Burton Port-being talked of as a Grand National possible) v Gigginstown (SIR DES CHAMPS, FIRST LIEUTENANT and LAST INSTALMENT) but even if we stopped there I wouldn't be sure we'd even got the connections leading hope by the time we get to the race! I think people may be being too quick in suggesting LONG RUN is past his best. He has consistently put in some big numbers and remains a key contender. He hasn't progressed as mush as might have been expected from such a young horse and did appear to be caught for toe last year. For me his jockey will always be a negative but he can only do what the horse is capable of delivering and I don't think he did much wrong last year. In three visits to the festival he not been out of the first three and I will be betting him to repeat that this season. SIR DES CHAMPS has won his last 8 races, 7 of those trained by Mullins and 2 of those victories came on his 2 visits to the festival. He appears to be Willie Mullins' number one favourite comparing him to his best staying chaser Florida Pearl (who just didn't quite get the Gold Cup trip) and he is confidently being campaigned with this race in mind. He has to improve and prove he will get the trip and although I have the utmost respect for Willie's judgement from a betting point of view the confidence behind SIR DES CHAMPS is giving us tremendous value elsewhere in the market. I love BOBS WORTH and he has done me a favour at the last two festivals and with 4 wins from 4 visits to the course he has to be on any short list. Closely rated with BOBS WORTH is FIRST LIEUTENANT who was only 2 1/2 lengths behind him in last years RSA Chase and the year before beat Rock On Ruby in the Neptune and to be honest there shouldn't really be much difference in price between the two and certainly 8/1 about BOBS WORTH and 16/1 about FIRST LIEUTENANT seems wrong. Interestingly the fact that SIR DES CHAMPS is another Gigginstown horse and is strongly fancied ahead of FIRST LIEUTENANT must give some credence to Willies enthusiasm, coupled with the fact Willie had Call The Police behind FIRST LIEUTENANT in the RSA so should have some handle on their respective merits. Last season I got the impression LAST INSTALMENT was favoured ahead of FIRST LIEUTENANT by Davy Russell and indeed he had comprehensively beaten him by 6 lengths over 3 miles, so at 25/1 must offer value. The problem however, with LAST INSTALLMENT, is that until he has been back and proven he is over his injury he is a speculative bet ante post. It is interesting I have identified 5 horses with leading credentials and haven't even mentioned the best staying chaser of our time. Kauto Star remains in training and was indeed impressive in his early races last season but was found out yet gain come the Gold Cup and I doubt he will even line up this season and will be retired after an early season victory. I have made money opposing him over the last 3 years but whatever happens I respect him tremendously and hope he stays safe and sound. Other ex champions back in training include Imperial Commander and Weapons Amnesty but as for Last Installment we need to see these horses back on the track proving they retain their ability but even then at 12 and 10 respectively I cannot see them recapturing their crown. David Pipe believes we should forget about GRANDS CRUS's run in the RSA and he hopes he can still make up into a Gold Cup horse. He was a strong favourite for the RSA Chase last year and is clearly very talented. I am not yet convinced and will be looking to back him during the season and then making a judgement on his stamina and the opposition closer to the race. Hunt Ball has to improve again! to be competitive and I don't expect him to be able to do that. The Giant Bolster ran a tremendous race in 2nd last year but he is unlikely to ever win the race. Flemenstar is highly regarded but I am very reluctant to back ante post in this race a horse who has not yet proven himself at Cheltenham, so he is easily passed over. A similar comment applies to Hidden Cyclone who has not run at HQ yet. Although beaten by SIR DES CHAMPS connections reported he returned poorly and he could be an interesting outsider if he can show he has the stamina and the course. I can't have Time For Rupert, (not good enough) or Silviniaco Conti, (better on flat tracks). There are any number of other classy horses who may try the trip, (Captain Chris, Cue Card etc) but until they actually prove they can get over 3 miles at championship pace on a course like Cheltenham they really cannot be on the short list. In summary I think Henderson and Gigginstown have very strong hands. At the prices LONG RUN at 10/1 and FIRST LIEUTENANT at 16/1 represent the best value ante post but I will leave a bet on LONG RUN as I want to back him each way and he is likely to be beaten or run unimpressively early season and I may get a bigger price. I will not let BOBS WORTH go unbacked but want a bit bigger than 8/1 ante post and on the day I will want to save on SIR DES CHAMPS if he lives up to expectations. TO IDENTIFY NEW CONTENDERS EXAMINE AND CONSIDER a) ANY NEW HORSE THAT TRADES AT 40.0 OR LESS ON BETFAIR b) RETURNS A RPR >= 164 IN A 3m+ RACE C) CONTESTS KING GEORGE KEMPTON DECEMBER; LEXUS CHASE LEOPARDSTOWN DECEMBER; d) WINS A GRADED CHASE DURING THE SEASON