NH Season 21012/13 Ante Post Guidelines

More of a reminder to myself my guidelines for ante post betting for the Cheltenham Festival, (not rules as any guideline can be broken given sufficient reason and a value price), include a) Do not back a horse who has had any part of last season off injured, particularly if they have not run yet this season (e.g. Spirit Son, Invictus, Battonier!!); b) Be wary of backing any horse where the betfair price is bigger than the best traditional bookmakers price. Betfair layers are not stupid and they will have very good reason to be offering a bigger price and you need to know what that reason is and why you don't agree before playing), For similar reasons be very wary of backing any horse trading at 50.0 or bigger on Betfair; c) Do not back any horse where there is no money on the layside on betfair, (i.e. people looking to back) d) Be wary of any horse ante post who has not run at the festival before unless it has run well at Cheltenham and shown it can peak in March. Clearly this is less relevant in novice events, but then you need to know a horse has run well in March, can race left handed at pace and has sufficient stamina; e) Do not place a bet before running the horse through the key trends for the race; f) Be wary of backing a horse where the connections have not verified the target, unless the target is unambiguous. It is understandable that often connections will not be clear until they know the going conditions, the opposition, the potential of their other contenders, the availability of a particular jockey etc. However the form book will often be clear over what is a horses optimum trip on good to soft going and this can be a very good indicator, although be careful with novices who can be stepped up in trip. You should be particularly careful in the novice events. For instance horses going for the Triumph could switch to the Supreme or go for the Fred Winter Handicap, or horses going for the Neptune could be stepped up to the AB Spa Hurdle or stepped down to the Supreme and not even connections are certain until the New Year or later. g) Do not back a horse who has shown their best form on soft going. It is rarely soft at the festival and you will lose more money backing such horses than waiting until closer to the day and taking a shorter price. I would welcome any additions?