2012/13 NH Season and the Champion Hurdle

Not long to go now with Mark Howard's One Jump Ahead arriving this week. Always an excellent read and first guide to plans of some key horses. I noticed that Spirit Son did not appear in Henderson's review and then heard he had been very ill and unlikely to race again. Sad as I really thought this horse could win the Champion Hurdle. Talking of the Champion Hurdle here are my initial thoughts. All the horses in bold are potential bets at the right price. A competitive division with Henderson having GRANDOUET(already proven form but could be just short of top class), Darlan (promising but still to prove it, "a chaser in the making" could start off in Greatwood to see if up to standard his trainer thinks he is, a JP horse so be interesting what Tony McCoy chooses), SIMONSIG (likely to go chasing - although it is interesting he is trading shorter on Betfair than Grandouet, so perhaps a change of plans?), Oscar Whiskey (the fact that they aimed him at the World Hurdle when many judges felt he had a better chance in the Champion Hurdle and were right, surely suggests connections felt one or more of Grandouet, Binocular or Spirit Son had better chances), and Binocular (surely has had his chances and as a 9 year old next year I want to see at least 3 races in season before considering backing). Although I believe GRANDOUET is Henderson's best shot this season, it will pay to see which the stable most fancy given the array of talent they have. This is not always easy, but with sensible watching of the Betfair market and carefully listening to any connections commnets it might be possible. Certainly as the race gets closer this should get easier. HURRICANE FLY is a worthy favourite but it is very difficult for champions to win it again in non consecutive years and he is one I would look to save on the day rather than back ante post. Similarly ROCK ON RUBY is too short to back ante post and I really find it hard to believe he can win it again. I have to be careful as I didn't fancy him at all last year and lost on the race as a result so I need to keep objective. Both he and Hurricane Fly have shown they are well capable of winning it and if one or both are there again on the day I will have to save on them but really cannot see either winning. Having said that, if either have a bad trial race and drift into double figures and I can identify a sensible reason for the defeat I will strongly consider a bet. I don't like backing 5 year olds for this race so can leave Grumetti and Countrywide Flame alone and see how they and any other juveniles measures up during the season. Other than Hurricane Fly the Irish don't have anything I am worried about, Galileos Choice is a possible improver but will have to prove it first), at this stage but will monitor their racing just in case. The two I like are CINDERS AND ASHES and ZARKANDAR and I have backed both at 14/1. Their trainers have confirmed that the initial plans are the Champion Hurdle and with Donald McCain and Paul Nicholls, they are in very able hands. McCain was very keen on Cinders for the Supreme and immediately afterwards was talking about the Champion Hurdle. Given he had Overturn, (likely to go novice chasing), run second in the race last year and Peddlers Cross, (considering a step up in trip over hurdles), run second the year before you have to believe Cinders must have a really good chance. Zarkandar has already put up a very classy form figure when finishing fifth last year in the race when only five and on only his fifth hurdle race, and is definitely over priced in my opinion. A number of Nicholls' horses did not run up to their true mark at the festival last year and we now Know Rock On Ruby was trained by Harry Fry. Both are proven at Cheltenham and have shown they can peak in March, (Cinders was 5th in the Champion Bumper and Zarkandar won the Triumph Hurdle). I am likely to go in again after their first runs of the season. I will be keen to see what McCain does with PEDDLERS CROSS who I expect to step up in trip but he is another I will be watching carefully if McCain decides 2 miles is his trip as he believes he is back to his best. The Greatwood Hurdle will give us the first clue of other contenders as it is race often used by trainers to see how they stand with horses well handicapped but who have promise, but the first real test is the International at the December Cheltenham meeting. TO IDENTIFY NEW CONTENDERS EXAMINE AND CONSIDER a) ANY NEW HORSE THAT TRADES AT 40.0 OR LESS ON BETFAIR b) RETURNS A RPR >= 163 IN A 16F/17F RACE C) CONTESTS INTERNATIONAL HURDLE CHELTENHAM DECEMBER; FIGHTING FIFTH HURDLE NEWCASTLE DECEMBER; FESTIVAL HURDLE LEOPARDSTOWN DECEMBER; HATTONS GRACE HURDLE FAIRYHOUSE DECEMBER; CHRISTMAS HURDLE KEMPTON DECEMBER; IRISH CHAMPION HURDLE LEOPARDSTOWN JANUARY; KINGWELL HURDLE WINCANTON FEBRUARY; d) WINS A GRADED HURDLE DURING THE SEASON