NH Season 2012/13 Queen Mother Champion Chase

The previous seasons QMCC featured five of the last 11 winners. Given Big Zeb was beaten 15 lengths into third and will be 12 next year that suggests SIZING EUROPE and FINIANS RAINBOW should be considered. The last 13 Arkle winners that have gone on to compete in the QMCC have been at least placed with 6 winning. This suggests SPRINTER SACRE is firmly in the mix. The manner of his victory at last years festival was electrifying and his time was excellent. Trained by Henderson again who also trains FINIANS RAINBOW and such is the regard connections have for SPRINTER SACRE, there is talk of stepping up FINIANS RAINBOW in trip. Of course Henderson has other stars at that trip as well, not least of all Riverside Theatre and it would not be a surprise to see FINIANS RAINBOW line up here where stamina is important. Championship races are run at real pace and you really need a horse that can get 2m 4f under normal race conditions. 11 of the last 12 winners have had an Official Rating of at least 160. That brings in SANCTUAIRE who Nicholls is already on record as saying he could be one of his best 2 mile chasers ever. This from a man who has trained multiple 2 mile festival chase winners, including Master Minded, and Azertyuiop, is praise indeed. Added to his trainers confidence is the memory of SANCTUAIRE easily winning the Fred Winter in 2010, on only his second start in this country. Another Nicholls contender is Al Ferof but I expect him to be stepped up in trip this season and a third from the same stable is Edgardo Sol, who is on the fringes. Very versatile over hurdles and fences he hasn't won above grade 3 and Nicholls doesn't seem to talk with a real buzz, so another to keep an eye on but not back at this stage. Similalry CUE CARD, who was a well beaten second in last years Arkle, cannot be ignored but until we know his best trip I want to see how he is campaigned. He is certainly a horse I will be looking to back this season as I think having been over hyped earlier in his career, he is now too easily dismissed and I expect him to go off too big a price to ignore. A very talented horse. Somersby is also an under-rated horse but in 5 trips to Chletenham he hasn't won and his 2 graded chase wins at 16f/17f were both on Right-handed tracks. Grands Crus is quoted in the betting but his trainer is talking of 3 miles and the Gold Cup even though he flopped in the RSA Chase, (scoped dirty afterwards and his trainer believes the performance should be ignored), and it would seem more likely he would line up in the Ryanair if the Gold Cup was ruled out. MENORAH was a very talented hurdler and should not be ruled out. He made a mistake in last years Arkle so he needs to be given another chance. He could take part in the Haldon Gold Cup and/or the Tingle Creek. He has won 3 times at Cheltenham and has won a Grade 1 Chase and is rated officially 160, so has to in the mix. Flemenstar is a highly regarded Irish horse but connections are talking of training him for the Gold Cup so an unlikely starter. In summary it is very difficult to see past SPRINTER SACRE but at 5/4 is no value at this stage. SIZING EUROPE, SANCTUAIRE, and FINIANS RAINBOW are three credible and worthy challengers. Each way possibly given we get 1/4 the odds at 12/1 or bigger they could be interesting, (be wary of Hills who are going 1/5 the odds). However what is putting me off FINIANS RAINBOW is the possibility he will be stepped up in trip, SIZING EUROPE is trading 19.0 on Betfair and SANCTUAIRE still has it to prove it for me. I have dutched the four on Betfair to small stakes at this stage as I cannot see anything else getting a look-in but I will be looking at the entries for the Tingle Creek and making further decisions at that time. TO IDENTIFY NEW CONTENDERS EXAMINE AND CONSIDER a) ANY NEW HORSE THAT TRADES AT 40.0 OR LESS ON BETFAIR b) RETURNS A RPR >= 163 IN A 16F/17F RACE C) CONTESTS TINGLE CREEK SANDOWN DECEMBER; GRADE 1 CHASE 2M LEOPARDSTOWN DECEMBER; TIED COTTAGE CHASE PUNCHESTOWN JANUARY; VICTOR CHANDLER CHASE ASCOT JANUARY; GAME SPIRIT CHASE NEWBURY FEBRUARY d) WINS A GRADED CHASE DURING THE SEASON