National Hunt Horses to Follow

Well I have finally finished my initial list of horses to follow for the 2009/10 season. Of course the list will be added to and deleted from as the season progresses, (primarily based on form and stable tours), but the initial work has been completed.

There is a list of 50+ horses to follow and a further list of horses to watch. The top 5 for me are: -

BENSALEM
BINOCULAR
MASTER OF ARTS
QUWETWO
TRAFFORD LAD

I will be cautious about how I back my 50, in that I am prepared to leave their debut run unbacked. This is because the more hyped horses can go off too short and it is dificult to know which stables are in form and which horses are fit. However some horses do well first time out and these will be an exception to my rule as will a stable firing and who have a good record fto. After the first run I would be looking to back on their next three starts, where conditions are in their favour, stopping at a winner.

The full list is available free to trial members at www.cheltenhamchampions.com

Horses to Follow

Well I have updated (using Easyodds) all my horses to follow based on my own list plus One Jump Ahead plus John Morris and Paul Ferguson.

I am not sure I have been discriminating enough but the art will be to only back one of the listed to follow when a) conditions are in the selections favour; b) based on an analysis of all runners the selection is well in on the form ratings; c) the selection meets the basic trends for the race in question; d) the horse is avaiable at value odds and the frame of the race is attractive; and finally e) the trainer and jockey are not out of form in the last 14 days (> 5% S/R) and the trainer and jockey have a good record at the course (> 10% for at least one of them);

My offer of a free trial during October is going well with a very good take up (www.cheltenhamchampions.com), and I am confident my list of horses to follow which I will release in the 2nd week of the free trial will pay there way during the season and believe it will be worth signing up for the free trial alone (but I would say that wouldn't I!).

Had my first bet of the National hunt season on Kangaroo Court. I had wanted to take on Seven is my Number and got what I thought was a good price about Kangaroo Court only to find Seven is my Number being withdrawn, leaving Kangaroo Court odds-on! He duly won nicely but the cut for the Arkle was an over reaction to say the least. I think Kangaroo Court is definately one to follow but I don't think he is even the best 2 mile novice chaser in Emma Lavelle's yard let alone the Arkle winner. Interestingly Seven is my Number came out a couple of days later and won nicely so it might have been an interesting race but I still believe Kangaroo Court would have prevailed.

Anyway my blogs may be a little more erratic given I will be spending most of my time on my weekly e-mail to members.

Mark Howard and One Jump Ahead

I received my copy of One Jump Ahead and have been working through updating my horses to follow. The publication is excellent value at £7.99 and if you have never purchased a copy I thoroughly recommend that you pop into WH Smiths and grab yourself one. I subscribe to the updates but I would not say they were as such good value. They are not bad value it's just the book is VERY good value!

I look forward to articles by Declan Phelan and Anthony Bromley as well as Mark's top 40. With regard the latter you have to respect his view since he interviewed connections and he is experienced enough to be able to read between the lines and to recognise the relative strengths of a trainers views.

I am awaiting John Morris's Jumping Prospects and will blog my thoughts in due course.

Nothing new to report on Cheltenham and no new updates on my website www.cheltenhamchampions.com but I am pleased with the level of interest, particulalry for the free October trial.

I would say that looking forward to the festival, the novice events are looking as competitive as ever.

I have also started to update my Aintree stats and was surprised at a couple of things which has prompted me to look to try to set some time aside to go into the trends in much more detail. Most of my work is geared towards Cheltenham and I have normally lost interest come April but it seems there could be some good angles to take forward from Cheltenham to Aintree.

Paul Nicholls Open Day and the Arkle

I was reading about Paul Nicholls open Day feedback in the Racing Post and have had a good bet to lay back at some time in the future. Now I say quite openly and up front I have already had a small bet on Betfair and plan to lay back either just before it runs or after if I decide to let it run and (hopefully) win. The horse is Tataniano for the Arkle. I have always believed Paul Nicholls to be the number one trainer when it comes to 2 mile chasers and I used to look for the Nicholls' and Pipe (and since the retirment of Martin, Alan King's), 2 mile Novice chasers as ante post propositions as early as possible, as they were sure to be backed in. We had Tatenen last year and this year we have Tataniano. He has run three times at 19f or less and won all three and has a course win at 17f, which he won by 21 lengths.

Now that race was only a Class 2 but his rating over hurdles is comparable to last years winner and it is clear from the open day that he is being targetted at the race. I cannot believe the 25/1 with Bet365 will last long but I have backed it on Betfair as I am most likely to look to lay the bet off. We only need a positive mention in the Racing Post from Paul Nicholls before he runs next season and he will surely shorten to at least 16/1. This is looking a very competitve division this year with a number of 2 mile hurdles (such as Crack Away Jack and Sizing Europe possibly going chasing), and I have a lot of respect for horses such as Sommersby and Copper Bleu that were always going to be better chasers than hurdlers.

This is a race where we need to wait and see horses jump at speed and I would not notrmally be looking to bet until just after Christmas but I really cannot see Tataniano being bigger then 16/1 come November/December. This is a trading bet though at this stage of the season.

ISIRIS is back!

I follow JP's betting blog and am really pleased he has resubscribed to Isiris so I can follow that services progress. I was with Isiris for most of the last 14 years. I wish Kevin every success but I believe other services offer much better value for money these days without the angst of trying to get the advertised prices. I suspect prices may hold up a little better these days as I would imagine numbers are down on the hey day and I hope JP makes a success. I will miss Kevin's Ante Post advices as that was one part of the service I did enjoy and did make a profit out of.

I don't know whether it is the same person but I also noted JP's Cheltenham blog has posted his first thoughts, putting up Forpadydeplasterer as his QMCC tip. The Arkle winner does have a fantastic profile if lining up in the QMCC the following year and 20/1 is a decent price. He has been first or second in every race he has run in bar one when he was 4th. You have to put Kalahari King and Barker in the race with a similar chance with at least the former having the the important benefit of being confirmed as being targetted at the race. I don't expect many will be in contention for this and an each way shot at 16/1+ once the target has been confirmed is not a bad play on any of those three. Personally I am coupling those mentioned with Masterminded Big Zeb and Petit Robin on Betfair as the prices allow, until I am clearer about racing plans.

Three horses I would consider betting if the prices would allow are DUNGUIB for the Supreme Novices; HURRICANE FLY for the Champion Hurdle and BIG BUCKS for the World Hurdle, but they would need to be at least 6/1+ for me to go in. BIG BUCKS is the safest of the three having been there and done it. There is always the doubt he may go for the Gold Cup if anything happened to Kauto Star and/or Denman. Also he does race in a way that it would not be totally unexpected if he put in a bad performance and if he did, (and Paul Nicholls confirmed he had come out of it ok) could see the price drift enough to play. Both HURRICANE FLY and DUNGUIB have to prove they can jump at speed and I am happy to pass them over for the moment. HURRICANE FLY is making the market for my two main fancies for the Champion Hurdle in BINOCULAR and CELESTIAL HALO and am very happy to wait and see how the season develops having taken 6/1 & 13/2 and 14/1. Certainly backing horses at less then 6/1 ante post is a sure way to lose money in the long run, it must be 2/1 any horse gets to the race in one piece let alone in form and with a winning chance.

Congratulations Ffos Las Backstage and Gordon Elliott

It was great to watch some quality jumps racing in August (!), from Ffos Las, wtih Backstage showing once again what an astute trainer Gordon Elliott is. It was a quality field spoilt only by the fact there were only half a dozen in the handicap proper. The course has received good feedback and I wish them all the success for the future.

Well I have sent off my cheque for One Jump Ahead and Jumping Prospects and updated my horse notes from the Racing Post Open Day reports, (although there wasn't much new information).

The Arkle and the RSA are looking very competitive events and although I have had a bet on Crack Away Jack, (he was only just below Champion Hurdle class but connections always saw him as a chaser), for the former it really is way too early to have any interest in either event. We need to see how horses jump at speed for the former and jump and stay for the latter and the attrition rate particulalry for the RSA Chase can be very high. I remember the early betting on the RSA last year and of the first 20 in the betting only 4 lined up, although the eventual winner Cooldine was joint 16/1 favourite. Without doing too much work I already have a list of eight runners I am interested in for the RSA Chase and as for the Arkle we may not have seen the winner on an English or Irish track yet! Add to that the betting markets are very immature and weak so there is no real edge to be had.

I had a minor scare with my web-site (www.Cheltenhamchampions.com) when returning from a short break found it had ceased to exist! Fortunatley it was due to "a short outage on one of the servers" of my hosting company (whatever that means). Anyway all is back to normal now.

I am not a football fan but do enjoy trading to very small stakes and have made a small profit on a couple of games already this season. As is often the case it pays to bet against the perceived general wisdom. For instance if the general view is there will be a goal fest check out what the spread firms have set the total goals market and trade on betfair the "under x goals" market where x is the mid point of the spread price.

Champion Hurdle

I see Solwhit has been backed in to 9/1 (from 10/1) and he has excellent form having beaten Punjabi in Ireland and before that posted a (very) big figure at Aintree (albeit over 20f on Soft). But given the Punjabi race was also on Soft/Heavy and Punjabi had hard races at both Cheltenham and Aintree just prior to that race, and the fact he has yet to race at Cheltenham, I don't think that is an attractive price. I know Solwhit is being targetted at the race but at this stage I can only see him as a saver if he lines up for the big one in March.

On form we have four good horses in Binocular, Celestial Halo, Punjabi and Solwhit, with both Hurricane Fly and Zaynar looking like they may be capable of posting figures to compete at the highest level, particualrly the former.

I think there is no doubt Hurricane Fly was the best Novice 2 miler of last year but 7/2 about a horse who has never raced at Cheltenham and has to prove himself against his elders some 7 months ahead is not for me.

I cannot have Zaynar even though he is as short as 8/1 with Victor Chandler, (who has an interest in him), primarily because he will only be 5 and despite Katchit's win they are up against it when facing older more mature and experinced rivals at the festival.

I will be watching Hurricane Fly and Zaynar closely as they could easily develop into bets at some stage but they are both too short for what they proved so far.

So having suggested Hurricane Fly and Zaynar are too short and Solwhit has something to prove over 2 miles at Cheltenham on Good to Soft going, we are left with the first three home last year.

We have seen off the old brigade and a new generation is now centre stage and I am convinced we will see the first three back again next year with a big chance. All three have to be respected and with both Binocular and Celestial Halo being only 5 last year and open to improvement and each with reason to believe they can do better they have to be really good value at 6/1 and 14/1.

Punjabi has had 30 races with 14 over hurdles compared to Binoculars 14 lifetime and 7 hurdle races and Celestial Halo's 16 races and 8 hurdle races. He had a good preparation last year and the run of the race and whilst he is a very tough horse, I would want 18/1+ before I stepped in.

Celestial Halo deserves to be slightly longer than Binocular as there is a doubt as to whether he will be stepped up in trip (particularly if Big Bucks goes for the Gold Cup)and a doubt over the jockey, (will Ruby Walsh ride Hurricane Fly if they both line up?).

So to summarise the prices I would be looking to beat at the start of the season are: -

Binocular 5/1; Hurricane Fly 6/1; Celestial Halo 10/1; Punjabi 16/1; Solwhit 16/1; Zaynar 20/1; Others 33/1+

There is the possibility that something improves past all these, or something comes from the flat, but I am happy, at this stage, to bet that doesn't happen.

Cheltenham Champion Hurdle

I have been re watching the 2009 Champion Hurdle.

Punjabi is clealry a quality horse but he got the run of the race and was a year older than both Binocular and Celestial Halo. I have said previously given the interrupted preparation he had and with another year under his belt, Binocular is my fancy to win in 2010. However the more I watched the race, coupled with the fact that Paul Nicholls is aiming him at the race and the fact he had a very dificult start to his training last year and the fact that he had to fight all the way in a contested fight for the lead with Osana and Hardy Eustace, it is dificult not to be impressed with his performance. I do have a concern as to who will ride him as if Hurricane Fly lines up who would Ruby Walsh choose to ride? I suspect (quite rightly), we will not get an answer until it happens but it has to be a worry.

Whilst I still think Binocular will win (as long as the going is not too soft), I think the 14/1 about Celestial Halo is too big a price.

Hurricane Fly, Solwhit and Zaynar are all horses who could make the grade but even if they do I could only see them as saver material. Unlike Celestial Halo and Binocular they have not been there and done it in the Champion Hurdle. Also Both Hurricane Fly and Solwhit have yet to prove they will take to the Cheltenham course.

However it is interesting that Zaynar is only 8/1 with Victor Chandler (who has an interest in him) and he is proven at Cheltenham. Nevertheless I would want to see him come out and be competitive against his elders before considering a saver bet. There is no way he should be 2 points shorter than Celestial Halo at the beginning of the season.

I accept there is the risk that Celestial Halo may be stepped up to the World Hurdle (particularly if Big Bucks is re-routed to the Gold Cup-something that might happen if anything happened to Kauto Star or Deman), but it was clear to me after the Champion hurdle last year Paul Nicholls really thinks he has a chance of winning it with Celestial halo and if he aims a horse at a race you have to take notice. Plus through his column in the Racing Post he is likely to talk positively of his chances and cause his proce to contract.

It is difficult to see anything at this stage being worthy of consideration for the Champion Hurdle other than the six mentioned and at the prices Binocular at 6/1 and Celestial Halo at 14/1 stand out.

National Hunt Ante Post Trading Opportunities

Well the 8/1 has now gone about Denman for the Gold Cup, as I thought it would. I still think 7/1 is too big but having had my bet will now wait.

I was interested in reading that Paul Nicholls intends giving Master Minded a busy season icluding the Queen Mother Champion Chase (QMCC). He has stated before, that he is a dificult horse to train and I am sure there is money in laying him for the QMCC now. It would only need one poor run or an injury scare for his odds to lengthen and his performances of late are not upto those of his first Queen Mum win, so there is the real possibility of him being run very close. That is without considering the possibilty (god forbid) of injury. The downside is you tie your money up which few of us can afford to do, but as a low risk trading opportunity this is one of the better ones.

Slightly more risky trading opportunity is to take the 25/1+ on Betfair about Notre Pere for the Gold Cup. He is due to clash with Kauto Star in Ireland in November and I would expect him to trade shorter leading upto that race and even if you cannot trade out for a profit before the race I am confident on nhis required soft going he will give a good enough show to see his odds cut even if he doesn't beat Kauto Star. This is however definately a trading bet only as I cannot see him getting his soft ground at the festival and so he probably will not even run!

Denman still excellent value

The prices on Denman (8/1 in 2 places) and Binocular (6/1 in several places) are still available and I cannot believe the former will last much longer. Paul Nicholls recently confirmed he was in rude health and will be targetted at the Gold Cup and not the Grand National. I never thought he would be aimed at the latter but I guess that goes back to last season when there was discussion in the press fuelled by comments from Harry Findlay. I really do think 8/1 is a very big price and I may well go in again.

I am having a very slow time on the flat at the moment. I don't follow it in the way I do National Hunt and follow a couple of tipsters, to small stakes, who are having a slow time themselves. I guess the going conditions don't help but we will come through.

My list of horses to follow is developing nicely and I cannot wait for One Jump Ahead to identify further possible. His sections from Anthony Bromley often identify new stars for the season and we get an early indication of targets. One of the best value publications of the season!

I am updating all my ratings ovber the next fortnight and feel I have never been better prepared for the season than this year. lets hope that translates into bigger profits!

Good Luck with your punting and talk soon.

Adrian

Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle

Continue to update Cheltenham races and decided to advise long term members to back Denman ew @ 8/1 and Binocular win @ 6/1 as some of these proces are going. Of course horses will improve and come into contention during the season but I have both races between 4 or 5 horses and I am sure both the advised horses will be trading shorter before Christmas.

Binocular will have a years growth and maturity, and did really well having missed a vital piece of work before last years race. I am worried about Hurricane Fly but he has yet to run at Cheltenham and needs to prove himself. He is trading too short for me but he is definately one to watch. I am not interested in Solwhit but will keep an eye on him. I will be looking to back to small stakes both Punjabi and Celestial Halo on betfair at 16/1 or bigger.

A horse that will be 10 at the next festival and with a well reported heart problem cannot make good ante post material, but when you look at the ratings Kauto Star and Denamn are so far ahead it is dificult not to see them in the finish if the make it to the Gold Cup in 2010. Sure irish horses like Cooldine, Aran Concerto and Trafford Lad could make the grade as could others but I can look to back these during the season as such horses need to win a good 3 mile + race at Graded Class level to stand a chance. I took Kauto Star on last year and lost but want to take him on again and I am more confident that he can be beaten this time. He is far too exposed and despite his class and the fact that he will be targetted at only the King george and the Gold Cup do not think he represents good value. He is a champion though so I am not saying that on the day I wont be tempted to save on him, but at the moment the 8/1 about Denamn is huge. He will only have to come out and win a race for those odds to halve and whereas last season I am sure they were worried about his condition I believe this season they will train as though he does not have a problem. He does take a lot of getting fit so there is a chance his first run may not be that impressive but that might give me another chance to go in again, (once connections confirmed he has come out of the race ok).

So there you are take the 6/1 about Binocular and the 8/1 about Denman and look to trade out before Christmas for a free bet.

So far ahead!

Well I really feel on top of preparations for the NH season. Still in July and already updated my stats and drafted the first e-mail not due until October! I have developed my first list of horses to follow based on the 2008/09 season and can't wait until the stable tours and One Jump Ahead, Marten Julian and John Morris produce their lists to look out for the new stars.

Have had to stop betting on the flat as I have hit my self imposed stop loss for the month of July (£200). I remember the days when £200 was my average stake! That was when I was working full time and subscribing to ISIRIS. I understand ISIRIS is coming back but I won't be joining as I simply cannot afford it. I know the argument that says you cannot afford not to but I am convinced there are more cost effective ways of making a profit and he is just to successful.

My problem has always been coping emotionally with the inevitable losing run. I would try to get my money back or do something silly, but slowly have been able to nearly master that and the stop loss is part of that strategy. Theoretically it is not justifiable (i.e. a successful system should be followed with a bank sufficient to cope and as the winners will come when you least expect them), but for me it is working.

Anyway looking forward to the Open, the Ashes the Tour de France.... does it get any better than this!

Caution Caution Caution

Started updating my notes for individual horses and amazed at the number of horses at the beginning of last season that were held in high regard by connections and "big things expected" that subsequently dissappointed and the lack of the names of horses that did well. So I need to be cautious (that word seems to crop up alot when you are considering ante post betting!). Looking at 2 letters a day so should be finished by the end of july.

Keep looking through the four key championship races and feel there is value in the Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup markets but that re the QMCC at the moment looking to play for a place and the prices don't really inspire and the World Hurdle there is too much doubt over who will be seriously going for the race.

Although I am not looking to bet on anything outside the four championship races before the turn of the year the Arkle already looks like it could be really hot. If a number of the Supreme horses do go chasing along with others from the Champion Hurdle not to mention horses from France not yet heard of looks like it could develop into a cracker of a race. I have personally had a small interest in Crack Away Jack but the more I look at possibles for the race the more I think perhaps the 12/1 is not that big. I know connections had schooled CAJ and were very pleased and it was only the fact it had done so well over hurdles they decided to wait a year so for a horse that could finish a closing fourth in the Champion Hurdle I don't regret having the bet.

I don't believe it; National Hunt in June!

I can't believe I am writing this blog in June just after Royal Ascot has finished.

I am a keen National Hunt fan and hadn't intended posting until September time.

This is my second year on the net with my website (www.cheltenhamchampions.com) and with the first year and no pedigree I was pleased when I had a successful festival such that for next season I could now "advertise" my website with greater conviction, but clearly I would start gearing up in September not June.

So what sparked me to blog this early?

I got my first member for 2009/10!

If someone else is that keen I thought why not track my developments from now until the start of the season?

So what have I been doing?

I have just finished updating my stats for the festival and starting in detail going through the ante post lists for the key races. Yes, it is too early to tie your money up but I want to be ahead of the game come the time the season starts and Mark Howard, Timeform et al begin their previews and certain prices start to go.

For now, I cannot see why Denman is still 8/1 (in two places) and cannot see that lasting. Yes he is very dificult to get fit, and there is a question wether he will ever get back to his best, but I don't think they will make any mistakes this year and injury apart fully expect him to be vying for favouritism come March. Kauto star is a class horse and may well be able to defy the stats around the number of races he has run but the value lies with Denamn at the moment. Notre Pere needs soft and if he doesn't get his ground he will not run but I think that is factored into his price and the 25/1 on betfair looks very reasonable. Cooldine may make up into a Challenger but he needs to prove he is before 12/1 is any value. Big Bucks won't run if Kauto Star and Denman remain at the top of their games. Imperial commander has to prove he can stay and Barbers Shop needs to show he has improved.

I learned a lot from my first year about running a service and will post my thoughts here over the next few weeks.

The first thing I would say is that tipping is much harder than winning at racing. I subscribe to the mathematician service http://www.mathematician-racing.co.uk (which imo is the most honest and professional service out there) and Guy has always maintained that it is a terrible business and I now have some insight to what he means.

More of the lessons learned and more early ante post thoughts next week.